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Reddit pickup artist complains that his “lay ratio” has dropped due to coronavirus

Calculating the Lay Ratio

By David Futrelle

Priorities, we’ve all got them. For example, my top priorities for the next year and a half are to 1) not die and/or 2) go completely broke. By contrast, the top priority of a Reddit “pickup artist” known as RedPill_Swinger is to procure himself as many potential future “lays” as possible, worldwide pandemic or no.

But alas, he’s not doing so well, and so he has turned to the Ask The Red Pill subreddit for advice on how to handle the “huge drop in the ROI of online dating apps.”

“I used to average one new girl/week before the outbreak of coronavirus and had (maybe have?) 6 plates,” he writes. “Plates,” for the uninitiated, is the oh-so-respectful Red Piller way of referring to women they date casually (“spinning plates”).

I told the plates I’m not gonna meet them until the quarantine is over cause I don’t wanna risk but I don’t mind fishing for new ones. So since the outbreak of coronavirus I only had a new entry who came over and we had sex. I was an idiot, I shouldn’t have risked.

Mr. Swinger, who says he’s an Italian living in Eastern Europe, puts part of the blame on “racism,” by which he seems to mean that women in his area are wary of people connected to one of the countries hardest hit by the virus.

This being said I’m not trying to shift the blame outside of me but I notice a huge change in the ROI. When they ask I don’t DEER [NOTE: Deny Everything? Even I don’t know what this acronym means –DF] but know that the “where are you from shit test” is hard to pass because my name is easy to link to Italy.m, and I also know that coming out is a deal breaker even though I have the same odds of being infected as them and I’ve got a OCD about following the quarantine rules (the new entry came over before the “curfew”), washing everything, sterilising and all.

He wonders if he should just lie and say he’s from Colchester instead.

Should I change my name and let them assume otherwise? I’ve got the plausible deniability that I’ve lived in Colchester and, no, people can’t tell the difference when I speak.

Yeah, I’m sure no one can tell the difference between an Italian and a British accent.

Even the Red Pillers think Mr Swinger’s post is a bit much.

“Jesus Christ, get over yourself,” writes one. “There is a pandemic going on.”

“You can’t possibly be that dense,” adds another.

And then there’s this fellow, who ignores the OP and offers his risk-reward assessment of casual sex in the age of coronavirus. In his mind, the virus

Doesn’t mean you can’t have sex. Let’s look at it this way:

Door #1: You have sex with a girl, get COVID and die. No big deal.

Door #2: You go around like a fucking sperg with a face mask and try to stay isolated, then die because a random guy sneezed in your face. Congrats.

I would rather take door #1.

I would suggest that he indeed take door #1 if doing so wouldn’t put others at risk.

Math is hard.

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Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

I told the plates I’m not gonna meet them until the quarantine is over cause I don’t wanna risk but I don’t mind fishing for new ones.

Is it just me, or did anyone else picture a man walking into a kitchen, shouting at the dishes, and then going fishing?

Doesn’t mean you can’t have sex. Let’s look at it this way:

The Monty Hall problem: corona edition. This time, there’s one fewer door and they’re all lousy.

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
10 months ago

The Monty Hall problem

I still can’t figure that one out intuitively; despite numerous explanations. I’m almost at the stage of investing in a door and some goats.

Lainy
Lainy
10 months ago

I read lay radio and I was like “what the fuck is a lay radio”

Moggie
Moggie
10 months ago

@Alan:

I’m almost at the stage of investing in a door and some goats.

Best consult an independent financial advisor. And remember: the value of your goats can go down as well as up.

Is there anything less erotic than PUA talk? It’s so dehumanising that it’s hard to believe they actually have fun.

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Alan Robertshaw
Others have probably explained better, and I’m sure other people here are capable of giving a better explanation, but here goes (assuming you know the premise of the problem):
If you choose a door at random, there is a 1/3 chance your door has a car behind it. There is a 2/3 chance that it is one of the other doors. When the host opens a door, he knows what is behind each door and he won’t open the one which has a car behind it. But, since your original door had a 1/3 chance of being right, that is still the probability of that door having a car. So, there is a 2/3 chance that the car is behind the other unopened door. Those are better odds, so it is better to switch to that door.

Or just take the xkcd approach:comment image

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
10 months ago

@ naglfar

Aww! I think that would be me too.

There was a legendary quiz/darts show here called Bullseye. At the end the winners were given the chance to win a mystery star prize. If they lost the host, Jim Bowen, would say “Let’s see what you would have won”. It was nearly always a car.

However, on the occasions they did win, the prize was almost invariably a speedboat. Very handy for people living in a tenth story flat in Wolverhampton.

It was revealed in later years that the programme budget didn’t actually run to a car; but the producer had a mate who sold speedboats.

Weird (and tired of trumplings) Eddie
Weird (and tired of trumplings) Eddie
10 months ago

It was revealed in later years that the programme budget didn’t actually run to a car; but the producer had a mate who sold speedboats.

In my experience, speedboats are WAAAAYYYY more expensive than cars….

Surplus to Requirements, Observer of the Vast Blight-Wing Enstupidation
Surplus to Requirements, Observer of the Vast Blight-Wing Enstupidation
10 months ago

Two questions:

a) Should lying about what someone would have won be considered fraud?

b) Since when does calculating the lay ratio involve relativity (mc2 and light cone diagrams) and electromagnetic fields (B and E vectors)? 🙂

Buttercup Q. Skullpants
Buttercup Q. Skullpants
10 months ago

Hot tip: You can increase your “lay ratio” to infinity, by decreasing to zero the number of random women you invite over to exchange bodily fluids and fauna during a pandemic. Denominators are magical things.

I told the plates I’m not gonna meet them until the quarantine is over cause I don’t wanna risk but I don’t mind fishing for new ones.

I’m having trouble following the logic that says acquaintances are risky and might be infected, but total strangers are fine.

Surplus to Requirements, Observer of the Vast Blight-Wing Enstupidation
Surplus to Requirements, Observer of the Vast Blight-Wing Enstupidation
10 months ago

That 2 is supposed to be superscript. I’m sure I used the correct tag correctly. Is someone sabotaging me to make me look stupid?

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
10 months ago

@ weird eddie

speedboats are WAAAAYYYY more expensive than cars

Apparently not if you have a mate who’ll give you a discount. Also, the producer would offer to buy back the speedboat for cash in hand.

These two looked thrilled though.

comment image

Dalillama
Dalillama
10 months ago

@Weird Eddie

In my experience, speedboats are WAAAAYYYY more expensive than cars….

Rather depends on the boat; one such as what Bullseye was offering would’ve run about $3,000, which would about buy you a new Yugo. Plus, if you get a new car you can immediately drive away in it, but turning a useless boat into cash is a hassle.

Amtep
Amtep
10 months ago

My advice for figuring out the Monty Hall problem intuitively is to imagine it with 100 doors. You pick a door; the game show host opens 98 of the other doors and shows there’s no prize behind those. Do you then switch to the remaining door, or stick with your first choice?

Then imagine it with fewer doors, until you get to 3.

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Buttercup

Hot tip: You can increase your “lay ratio” to infinity, by decreasing to zero the number of random women you invite over to exchange bodily fluids and fauna during a pandemic. Denominators are magical things.

But if you invite 0 women and have sex with 0 of them, 0/0 is an indeterminate form and requires L’Hôpital’s rule to solve. So what were the derivatives?

@Surplus
The website does weird stuff with superscripts, they don’t always work.

long time lurker
long time lurker
10 months ago

DEER defend explain excuse rationalize

Prith kDar
Prith kDar
10 months ago

When they ask I don’t DEER [NOTE: Deny Everything? Even I don’t know what this acronym means –DF]

DEER = Defend Explain Excuse Rationalize

Prith kDar
Prith kDar
10 months ago

ninja’d by long time lurker. 🙂

Sillabub
Sillabub
10 months ago

DEER = “Defend, Explain, Excuse, Rationalise”, apparently. And yes, this does seem to be a red pill-specific acronym.

Buttercup Q. Skullpants
Buttercup Q. Skullpants
10 months ago

They might not DEER, but they sure can DARVO.

@Naglfar: To properly quantify redpill lay ratios, we’d need to use imaginary numbers.

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Buttercup
Of course, if you asked them they’d just say it was complex, which is technically true but there’s no real part.

Allandrel
Allandrel
10 months ago

Two things that really stood out to me:

The PUA idea of the “shit test” being applied to something as simple as “where are you from” makes me suspect that this guy regards anything a woman does other than have sex with him as a “shit test.”

And the lovely bit of ableism from the guy denigrating take precautions against a pandemic. Truly, red pillers are just the best people.

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Allandrel
I didn’t even notice that word the first time through. I can’t say I’m really that surprised; ableism (and anti-autism stuff especially) is a key part of manosphere/alt-right ideology.

Truly, red pillers are just the best people.

*Trump voice*
Only the very best. So much the best, you will get tired of the best. The greatest you have ever seen. Folks, you have never seen better.

Big Titty Demon
Big Titty Demon
10 months ago

@Naglfar

Tremendous, tremendous. And their ratings! You’ve never seen ratings like this. They say no one’s ever seen ratings like this!

Snowberry
Snowberry
10 months ago

Re: Monty Hall problem: a hint on how it works is that you get one answer if you assume that the host knows which door the prize is behind, and a different one if you assume the host doesn’t know and opened a door at random. By default, people unconsciously assume the latter, but the “real” answer assumes the former… it’s just not normally spelled out, so your intuition has no reason to take it into consideration.

(I can try to explain it to anyone who still doesn’t get it.)

Chris O
Chris O
10 months ago

Something tells me this guy was striking out on the dating front long before Covid-19. I honestly can’t imagine anyone of any gender being desperate enough to even CONSIDER going out with this jerk.

Kat, ambassador of the feminist government in exile
Kat, ambassador of the feminist government in exile
10 months ago

Further along in this fascinating discussion:

ValorElite
2 points ·
19 days ago

You should go back and re-read your post because it makes no sense.

Unless you stand by what you wrote and are the biggest beta that puts pussy on a pedestal during a pandemic.

Ooh, the biggest beta. That’s got to be a compliment.

MisterRoid
1 point ·
19 days ago

Nothing to do with putting pussy on a pedestal. I have not even had sex for a month and I’m not in a rush. It’s simply about not living like a sheep.

Uh-oh, not so much of a compliment. And it seems like this guy is always thirsty but never desperate. He sees no need to hurry things — but he has to be his own man. What a guy.

Masse_Mysteria
Masse_Mysteria
10 months ago

Door #1: You have sex with a girl, get COVID and die. No big deal.

I assume the idea with PUA is that there would be more than one girl, but even if there was only one, don’t they realise you don’t just die when you get infected? That there would be an interval where they might infect other people, steepening the curve and so on? No big deal, I guess.

Also, I might just be stupid, but if someone spoke in a vaguely British accent and told me they were from Colchester, I’d be like “That sure sounds like a place in Britain!”

I don’t know where in Eastern Europe this person is, but I’m just saying that to us non-native English speakers, parsing accents can be difficult.

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Kat

the biggest beta. That’s got to be a compliment.

Beta fish usually only grow to 7 cm, so I’m not sure how big one has to be to be the biggest beta. But definitely a compliment to be the largest.

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
10 months ago

@ masse mysteria

“That sure sounds like a place in Britain!”

If he’s Italian he could pretend to be Roman and call Colchester Camulodunum instead.

Or Colonia Victricensis if we’re being formal.

(Colchester is actually pretty cool if you like history and archaeology)

Buttercup Q. Skullpants
Buttercup Q. Skullpants
10 months ago

It’s simply about not living like a sheep.

They’re really struggling with the fact that the virus can’t be gaslighted, aren’t they? Even when their lives literally depend on listening to people in authority and changing their behavior, they’re having a hard time letting go of this alpha/beta nonsense.

Re: the Monty Hall problem, you can also think about it in terms of asymmetric information.

1) I have no idea which door the car is behind, and there’s a high probability I will guess wrong.

2) The host knows exactly which door the car is behind.

3) Assume I picked wrong on my first guess. When I pick one of the two Goat Doors, the host is forced to reveal information to me by opening (and eliminating) the remaining Goat Door. He has no choice. The door he doesn’t open must contain the car.

4) If I pick a Goat Door the first time, switching guarantees a win. The probability of picking the wrong door at the outset is 2/3, so switching doors will win you a car 2/3 of the time.

Redsilkphoenix: Jetpack Vixen, Intergalactic Meanie
Redsilkphoenix: Jetpack Vixen, Intergalactic Meanie
10 months ago

Lay ratio:

comment image

Surely this is what they’re talking about, right? 😀

And…do I really want to know what the definition of sperg is? O.o

Anna
Anna
10 months ago

I just love this guy’s review of PUA’s book

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Redsikkphoenix

And…do I really want to know what the definition of sperg is?

If you do want to know, it’s an ableist insult (not sure if it’s considered a slur) that is short for “Aspergers.” That’s what Allandrel was talking about when he pointed out the ableism.

Crip Dyke
10 months ago

“How to get a beautiful woman into bed”

1. Pick your time zone.

2. Wait until a couple hours after dark.

3. Mission accomplished.

Lumipuna
Lumipuna
10 months ago

Alan:

If he’s Italian he could pretend to be Roman and call Colchester Camulodunum instead.

That’s a brilliant idea.

See, if you’re just Italian, it’s always difficult to convince the ordinary North European racists that you didn’t arrive from Italy within the last couple weeks (relevant interval for the disease risk), even if travel restrictions have been in Place for longer than that. Most likely, people will suspect you arrived in February or early March, and will remain an Infectious Foreigner for the foreseeable future.

However, if you pass for a time-traveling ancient Italian, people will likely accept you haven’t been in Italy for the last couple millennia. There’s no restrictions on time travel, and spatial travel restrictions shouldn’t apply retrotemporally. You also don’t have to pretend being from some other northern barbarian backwater, like Britannia. A thankless bunch those are, always trying to refuse the Empire after all we did for them…

Or Colonia Victricensis if we’re being formal.

Out of curiosity, does the “Col” part in Colchester come from Colonia? I’ve understood “Chester” or similar in city names comes from Castra, a Roman term for certain type of fortified settlement.

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Lumipuna

if you pass for a time-traveling ancient Italian, people will likely accept you haven’t been in Italy for the last couple millennia

If you really want to pass for a time traveling ancient Italian, learn the symptoms of lead poisoning and act like you have some of them (Romans used lead for all kinds of food vessels, it is theorized that lead poisoning may have been part of the cause of the fall of the Roman Empire). Also, put garum on everything. That will help you nail it.

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
10 months ago

@ lumipuna

does the “Col” part in Colchester come from Colonia

Apparently not. That was its official Roman military name; but the British name is from something like “Cole’s Castle”; as in the King who was a merry old soul.

There is indeed a castle there. Built atop the old Temple of Claudius.

Cyborgette
Cyborgette
10 months ago

@Anna

OMFG. Mystery’s PUA talk about “value” is almost verbatim the kind of stuff my dad used to tell me. And insist I was wrong when I disagreed, because I was young/naive/idealistic/not a woman at the time. I knew he was creepy but I never realized he held almost exact PUA beliefs.

*shudder*

Viscaria
Viscaria
10 months ago

I told the plates I’m not gonna meet them until the quarantine is over cause I don’t wanna risk but I don’t mind fishing for new ones.

Over and over I have read this, willing it to make sense.

Door #1: You have sex with a girl, get COVID and die. No big deal.

I feel like dying… is a big deal? And also all the stuff Masse_Mysteria said.

Lumipuna
Lumipuna
10 months ago

Alan,

That was its official Roman military name; but the British name is from something like “Cole’s Castle”; as in the King who was a merry old soul.
There is indeed a castle there. Built atop the old Temple of Claudius.

Now, apparently Wikipedia leans toward the theory that “Col” comes from an unknown Celtic etymology, via River Colne.

Also, even before the Norman castle was built in 11th century, local (English) folklore attributed the ruins of the temple to the mythical King Cole (apparently adopted from Celtic Coel or Coil).

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@Viscaria

I feel like dying… is a big deal?

Maybe he’s been playing too many video games and doesn’t realize that when you die IRL you don’t respawn?

Moggie
Moggie
10 months ago

I told the plates I’m not gonna meet them until the quarantine is over cause I don’t wanna risk but I don’t mind fishing for new ones.

These guys suck at metaphor. Who fishes for plates?

jaygee
jaygee
10 months ago

@Buttercup Q. Skullpants

I told the plates I’m not gonna meet them until the quarantine is over cause I don’t wanna risk but I don’t mind fishing for new ones.

I’m having trouble following the logic that says acquaintances are risky and might be infected, but total strangers are fine.

My understanding of “fishing for new ones” was that he would be chatting with new people (strangers as you called them) he would have lined up for when the quarantine ends. I think his thinking is that he would hook up with the acquaintances and strangers once the quarantine ends.

Door #1: You have sex with a girl, get COVID and die. No big deal.

Door #2: You go around like a fucking sperg with a face mask and try to stay isolated, then die because a random guy sneezed in your face. Congrats.

Seems to me that Door #2 would be to go around with a facemask on to have sex another day (when the quarantine ends). Doesn’t 2 seem preferable? You get sex and to live. Door 1 you get sex but die. Seems like an issue of delayed gratification.

Dalillama
Dalillama
10 months ago

@Naglfar

(Romans used lead for all kinds of food vessels, it is theorized that lead poisoning may have been part of the cause of the fall of the Roman Empire).

Eh. What mostly caused the fall of the Western Roman Empire was being an empire; they always come to pieces sooner or later.

jaygee
jaygee
10 months ago

Online dating while in quarantine is also something I’ve been dealing with personally.

I’ve had a number of video dates. They were ok.

But there are also people willing to risk infection for sex. I had agreed to meet up with someone before the stay-at-home order got stricter, but he had to cancel because of something else that got in the way. After that he kept asking to meet up, but I’ve said no until the restrictions are lifted. I suggested a video meet up, and he kind of left me hanging. I’ve since decided his constant pestering to meet in person and lack of effort to know me as a person just left me with a dissatisfied impression of him. I’ve told him we should just go our separate ways. I’ve had to tell him no several times. He asked for a second chance (and I wish I could take back the first chance I gave), but I just stopped responding. I hate to ghost people and prefer being direct, but I foresee him trying to continually convince me and argue if I respond.

Seems like people like straightforwardness unless it’s other people saying things they don’t like.

Buttercup Q. Skullpants
Buttercup Q. Skullpants
10 months ago

@jaygee

Could be. It’s confusing because in the very next sentence, he says he had a new “entry” come over and have sex.

These guys aren’t noted for their patience. With the quarantine likely to last several more months (at least), that’s a long time to be negging someone on okcupid. Do they even have the attention span for that?

Naglfar
Naglfar
10 months ago

@jaygee

My understanding of “fishing for new ones” was that he would be chatting with new people (strangers as you called them) he would have lined up for when the quarantine ends.

Even then, sounds a bit risky because that would imply being in close proximity to strangers in public, risking infection.

Seems to me that Door #2 would be to go around with a facemask on to have sex another day (when the quarantine ends). Doesn’t 2 seem preferable? You get sex and to live. Door 1 you get sex but die. Seems like an issue of delayed gratification.

Conservatives don’t really seem to get delayed gratification. Or the idea of planning ahead at all.

@Buttercup

that’s a long time to be negging someone on okcupid. Do they even have the attention span for that?

Or, by that point would the women realize what’s going on and block them?

Allandrel
Allandrel
10 months ago

@Lumipuna

You also don’t have to pretend being from some other northern barbarian backwater, like Britannia. A thankless bunch those are, always trying to refuse the Empire after all we did for them…

If there’s one place that Rome: Total War has taught me to hate as barbaric backwater, it’s not Britannia, it’s Gaul. Filthy, rebellious, mustachioed, pants-wearing Gauls.

Dalillama
Dalillama
10 months ago

If there’s one place that Rome: Total War has taught me to hate as barbaric backwater, it’s not Britannia, it’s Gaul. Filthy, rebellious, mustachioed, pants-wearing Gauls.

You rang?
comment image

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
10 months ago

Funnily enough, there was Transalpine Gaul and Cisalpine Gaul.

I wonder if Julie Bindel objected?