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Coronavirus Crash Open Thread

The official number of Americans sick with coronavirus doubled over the weekend; markets are plunging. There’s a lot to talk about, so here’s a new open thread.

This tweet from Eric Trump really hasn’t aged very well.

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1233478845719818242

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Weird (and tired of trumplings) Eddie
Weird (and tired of trumplings) Eddie
7 months ago

@ Nobody

Really?

I’ve seen this kind of passive-agressive bullying in the cause of “wokeness”

There’s a hint of “all about meeeeee” in this… just fyi

banned@4chan.org
banned@4chan.org
7 months ago

I have taken my temperature multiple times, so I know I don’t have a fever, and that’s the strongest presumptive indicator. But I’m sick with something, and I think I’m going to have to self-quarantine simply so I don’t cause a panic.

Viscaria
Viscaria
7 months ago

@Anonymous Coward

I am glad to read that you’re okay and that your employer was reasonable about the self-quarantine.

epitome of incomprehensibility

Quoting @Violet here because this is a good point:

People having heart attacks, or other emergencies which are not related to coronavirus, are also going to have trouble.

And maybe related: a Twitter connection was writing how she had (most likely) bacterial pneumonia but didn’t want to go to the hospital for fear of possibly spreading – or spreading fear of – COVID-19. At least she got her antibiotics delivered and is over the worst part.

On a lighter note, I have a cold and I had to go somewhere on the bus – I kept feeling like coughing and didn’t, in case people would think I had this virus.

Suppressing coughs makes my eyes water and it’s frustrating! But I don’t want to spread a cold either, although it’s near the end so it may not be contagious anymore.

Anyway, I just DIY’d (DIM’d for did it myself??) some herbal tea with bits of ginger and 3 drops of oregano oil, which smells medicinal at least 🙂

epitome of incomprehensibility

@banned@4chan.org – I didn’t see your comment before I wrote about having a cold. But yes, take time to rest if you can, even if just for your own sake. I cancelled non-essential things because of my cough.

Also (this applies in general) it might be good to make a note of your health information phone line, just in case. I know Quebec’s Info-Sante – for health information outside of emergencies – is 811.

weirwoodtreehugger: chief manatee

I’ve been coughing all day 🙁

I’ve also been sneezing, which isn’t a Covid-19 symptom. I also don’t really feel sick at all. So I think it might be allergies or a very mild cold.

Can’t feeling slight paranoia though! Like how whenever I get a cold in the summer, I start thinking about The Stand.

Nina
Nina
7 months ago

@WWTH

I feel you, it’s really hard not to get a little paranoid. And now hay fever season is about to start and I will be sneezing constantly for the next couple of weeks. Worst part will be the itching eyes, especially since we’re not supposed to touch our faces anymore.

I hope you feel better soon.

weirwoodtreehugger: chief manatee

Nina,

Oh, yeah. Itchy eyes are a constant through the warm weather months for me.

Viscaria
Viscaria
7 months ago

The “don’t touch your face” advice has led me to realize that I touch my face every minute of every day. I live to touch my face. I think some part of me wishes I could grow an extra hand just so I could do more face touching.

I have been trying to be better, but it is so hard.

Lesley
Lesley
7 months ago

Just a semi common sense thought on allergies that’s worth putting out: take something for them if you have them. I get seasonal ones that I mostly can just deal with, but my eyes get somewhat itchy. I’ve been taking Claritin just to eliminate the temptation to keep itching my eyes and touching my face.

Sheila Crosby
7 months ago

FWIW I believe that China has far more smokers and far more air pollution than the EU (not sure about the USA, but I think that’s in between). So a lot of COVID-19 sufferers had less-than-wonderful ungs to begin with and that would likely raise the mortality somewhat.
I’ve not seen any proper reseach into this – I doubt there’s been time – but it sounds very plausible to me .

I think we definitely need to be concerned and to wash our hands, but we don¡t need to panic. A extra week’s supply of toilet rolls is probably a good idea. 3 year’s worth is daft. I can’t imagine any scenario where you can’t buy toilet rolls for 3 years but there’s still running water to flush the toilet.

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

@NOBODY
It’s not easy to understand tone on the Internet, and I genuinely did explain what I meant badly (a better analogy might have been: if someone is stabbed 18 times and dies of a shock-induced heart attack, that death might very well end up in “heart attack” stats. This effect can paint a somewhat inaccurate statistical picture of cause of death, unless rigorously excluded. At the moment the stats we are seeing are changing every day, no-one’s had time to analyse them properly and exclude outliers, and they are almost certainly somewhat unreliable)

I’m always happy to explain what I mean, and I don’t mind being challenged because that’s how we learn. Also, if you’re going to accuse people of jumping to conclusions and saying things guaranteed to start an argument, perhaps don’t do the same thing yourself??

Naglfar
Naglfar
7 months ago

@Viscaria

The “don’t touch your face” advice has led me to realize that I touch my face every minute of every day

Same here. I didn’t realize how much I did it until I was told not to.

Right now I have a sore throat and it seems I don’t have coronavirus (not coughing, no fever, can breathe normally) but I do feel extra paranoid even though it seems much more to resemble a seasonal cold.

Lumipuna
Lumipuna
7 months ago

Without allergy medication, I’d be a horrible slimy mess during pollen season. (Which started wildly early this year, because weather’s been totally wonky.)

My medication works great, but it might not help everyone. Aside from pollen allergy, I also have lifelong “baseline” cough and sneeze symptoms that medical science cannot explain. Hopefully, during this epidemic, people won’t judge me too harshly for daring to cough while existing in public. You can’t know everyone’s medical background!

(I don’t generally go out much, and hardly ever in crowded places. My lifestyle and living situation is already very much “socially distanced”, as they say. I’m really hopeless in the face-touching department, but I do wash my hands a lot, and I try to do it tactically in relation to touching popular public touching surfaces.)

Yutolia the Laissez-Fairy Pronoun Boner
Yutolia the Laissez-Fairy Pronoun Boner
7 months ago

@NOBODY:

I completely understand where WWTH is coming from. Not only have we had a few come on this site and actually say that COVID-19 killing older and immune compromised people would be a good thing for the economy, but people with disabilities (such as myself) deal with this “the world would be better off without you because money bla bla bla” attitude on a daily fucking basis!!!

We get treated like we don’t add anything to society so it’s ok for us to die.

Ohlmann
Ohlmann
7 months ago

This week, I work from home 4 days on 5.

Today I was on site, and in the commute at least three different people had an apparently dry cough.

It’s total bullshit to extrapolate that any of them was ill, and the simple fact I was attentive enough to try to distinguate the number of cougher on sound alone is a big indication I was way too anxious about the whole issue. I guess there’s a lot of people like me who use too much energy fretting about that.

The other problem is that the WE in two weeks and three weeks respectively I have congregations of ~50 persons from all over France. I am anxious about risking to contaminate them all, and while being ill is no fun, contaminating other is what I truly fear.

Meanwhile, the distrust over our government mean pretty much every decisions is criticized as being “too much” or “not enough”. Most have no credentials to evaluate that, a few are in the medical sector, and almost none seem to know or care about what happen to gig workers, or poor people that can’t risk using paid sick day. (we do have pay sick day in France, but the lower the wage, the more likely that it’s a gamble to take some ; while illegal, being fired over being sick is still a real threat)

(because of connections at work, I know there are decent odds that France will be in Italy-style lockdown about middle of next week. I suspect the correct time would be right fucking now)

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
7 months ago

The government here has said that they’ll pick up the sick pay tab for any employer (under 250 staff) who asks people to stay at home. All part of the ‘flattening the curve’ strategy.

I’ve had a talk postponed. The venue was a lawyers firm that does a lot of international work; so I suppose that makes sense. Although I have a meeting on Friday; at Heathrow Airport; so in for a penny…

Diego Duarte
Diego Duarte
7 months ago

Government has decided to close down schools for a month. The same will probably go for Universities and institutes.

Anyone coming in from China, Spain, France or Italy must self-quarantine for two weeks. Still only at 13 infected, but I’m not too optimistic about the capacity of government to stop the spread.

One of the infected had already been attending school when he was tested, so it might’ve spread already.

Hippodameia
Hippodameia
7 months ago

In Washington (state) Gov. Jay Inslee has banned large gatherings (250 people) in three counties, and several school districts will be closed for at least two weeks.

We really, really need mass testing.

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
7 months ago

US Govt suspends travel to US from Europe; although UK still allowed.

Tovius
Tovius
7 months ago

@Alan
Of course that’s just trump grandstanding. It’s not going to help much.

Alan Robertshaw
Alan Robertshaw
7 months ago

@ tovius

It would be interesting to see what sort of scientific justification they put forward. Especially as it’s still really easy to get to the UK from the continent and fly out from here anyway.

Lumipuna
Lumipuna
7 months ago

Ah, I see it’s time for swift, decisive acts of doing something.

Lumipuna
Lumipuna
7 months ago

I see on Twitter that “Europe” has been specified to mean Schengen countries. This is all very “afterthought is first thought” style.

Hippodameia
Hippodameia
7 months ago

A payroll tax cut will be no help at all to people who aren’t working because they’re in quarrantine.

tim gueguen
7 months ago

We have our first reported Hollywood celeb COVID 19 infection. Tom Hanks has stated that he and his wife Rita Wilson, who are in Australia for a film Hanks is working on, have tested positive. Hanks is 63.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-test-positive-for-coronavirus-in-australia-1.4849491?cache=yes%3FclipId%3D89750%3FclipId%3D104059%3FclipId%3D89531

weirwoodtreehugger: chief manatee

This fucking country

FlyByKiwi
FlyByKiwi
7 months ago

OMFG I thought I understood what the US health system meant and then I realised you pay to get a Coronavirus test and even if you have insurance you might end up with a massive co-pay!? Or you don’t get a test!??? What the actual????

Moogue
Moogue
7 months ago

@Violet

“The U.S. has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people (South Korea and Japan, two countries that have seemingly thwarted the exponential case growth trajectory, have more than 12 hospital beds per 1,000 people; even China has 4.3 per 1,000). With a population of 330 million, this is about 1 million hospital beds. At any given time, about 68% of them are occupied. That leaves about 300,000 beds available nationwide.

The majority of people with Covid-19 can be managed at home. But among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU.

For this exercise, I’m conservatively assuming that only 10% of cases warrant hospitalization, in part because the U.S. population is younger than Italy’s, and has lower rates of smoking — which may compromise lung health and contribute to poorer prognosis — than both Italy and China. Yet the U.S. also has high rates of chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease and diabetes, which are also associated with the severity of Covid-19.

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.

If I’m wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by six days (one doubling time) in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22.”

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

The point to stay home and leave the doctors to the people who really need it (and not infecting every vulnerable person at the doctors to boot) cannot be said enough, however unlike the flu, Covid19 appears to infect the lungs, leading to frequent hospitalization.

Also, as I said in the other thread, even measles has “only” a .2% fatality rate nowadays. The flu, also with a fatality rate at only .1%-.2%. There’s no such thing as “only” when talking about an easily spread viral pandemic.

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

@Moogue @Yutolia

Every death is a tragedy to the people who love that person. I did not mean to trivialise that, and I’m really sorry it came off that way – it was unintentional.

The point I’m trying to make is that panicking and sensationalising doesn’t help those people. In a pandemic, we have to keep clear heads. We also have to accept that the figures we are seeing now will be subject to change, and at this point in time are almost certainly skewing high, are being given by different countries possibly with different criteria for inclusion, and may well include people who should be excluded. And we have to keep level heads, and not share rumours and unverified figures. When we do so we’re endorsing them, and the most important thing anyone can have right now is reliable information from reputable sources.

@Moogue
I’m sorry, but I need to say again that “required hospitalisation” is a meaningless phrase. How many were there for observation? How many were there because they lived with 5 other people and it was the only place to isolate them? How many had viral pneumonia? Are half of Italy’s cases in hospital there because it’s now Italy’s policy to admit them as a precaution? How many were on ventilators? How many were there because they had mild coronavirus and could have stayed at home, but had fallen down the stairs and broken their leg? How LONG were they in hospital – three hours or two weeks? How ill were they? Does this include day patients or is it people who were actually admitted?

Also, can you please link to where these stats comes from? Because I was looking for hospitalisation stats yest after talking to @Ohlmann, and I couldn’t find anything – medical organisations tend to not give figures in that way, because it is a) inaccurate, for the reasons I’ve given above, and b) alarmist.

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

There’s also the question of the psychological wellbeing of those people who are at risk.

The placebo effect is well documented. The reverse is ALSO documented. Throughout history there are cases of people who believed themselves to be cursed to die, and did die, and it can’t be accounted for. The psychological effect of the curse had an impact on them.

In modern society, there’s no widespread belief in magic any more – but science fills the same function.

The people who are disabled, or immune suppressed, or old, are also on facebook and on twitter and reading the news. They are scared.
If we share alarmist, inaccurate figures and give someone the impression they are unlikely to survive – they might indeed, quite genuinely, be less likely to survive. And that is why I am challenging people about figures right now, because we do not know who is listening or who is reading, or what effect it will have on them.

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

It’s called the nocebo effect

Ohlmann
Ohlmann
7 months ago

Yes, for example you should not try to spread artificially deflated figures and try too much to say that everything is good and all. While nocebo can be a problem, it’s nowhere near as problematic as lack of isolation due to minimization of the troubles.

Right now, we know the main problem is the strain on hospital due to the 20ish% of hospitalization, high recovery time and all. While it’s not entirely proven yet, apparently the difference in mortality in Italy and Corea is mostly due to having too many people for too few respirators. (of course, it’s a bit soon to have reliable figures from Italy)

Now there’s just to balance “not making people starve by preventing them from earning money” and “not have everyone ill at the same time”, because way too many people assert that the best thing is to just lock down everything, except that will quite litteraly kill a lot of people too by being the financial strain too many. Even in France where paid sick leaves are a given.

In other news, if you *can* telecommute, you really should. Mostly for the sake of thoses that can’t.

Moogue
Moogue
7 months ago

@Violet

From JAMA;

“The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently published the largest case series to date of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China (72 314 cases, updated through February 11, 2020).1 This Viewpoint summarizes key findings from this report and discusses emerging understanding of and lessons from the COVID-19 epidemic.

Among a total of 72 314 case records (Box), 44 672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab samples), 16 186 as suspected cases (22%; diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs), 10 567 as clinically diagnosed cases (15%; this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (1%; diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue).1

Most case patients were 30 to 79 years of age (87%), 1% were aged 9 years or younger, 1% were aged 10 to 19 years, and 3% were age 80 years or older. Most cases were diagnosed in Hubei Province (75%) and most reported Wuhan-related exposures (86%; ie, Wuhan resident or visitor or close contact with Wuhan resident or visitor). Most cases were classified as mild (81%; ie, nonpneumonia and mild pneumonia). However, 14% were severe (ie, dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/min, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio 50% within 24 to 48 hours), and 5% were critical (ie, respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure) (Box).1

The overall case-fatality rate (CFR) was 2.3% (1023 deaths among 44 672 confirmed cases). No deaths occurred in the group aged 9 years and younger, but cases in those aged 70 to 79 years had an 8.0% CFR and cases in those aged 80 years and older had a 14.8% CFR. No deaths were reported among mild and severe cases. The CFR was 49.0% among critical cases. CFR was elevated among those with preexisting comorbid conditions—10.5% for cardiovascular disease, 7.3% for diabetes, 6.3% for chronic respiratory disease, 6.0% for hypertension, and 5.6% for cancer. Among the 44 672 cases, a total of 1716 were health workers (3.8%), 1080 of whom were in Wuhan (63%). Overall, 14.8% of confirmed cases among health workers were classified as severe or critical and 5 deaths were observed.1

COVID-19 rapidly spread from a single city to the entire country in just 30 days. The sheer speed of both the geographical expansion and the sudden increase in numbers of cases surprised and quickly overwhelmed health and public health services in China, particularly in Wuhan City and Hubei Province. Epidemic curves reflect what may be a mixed outbreak pattern, with early cases suggestive of a continuous common source, potentially zoonotic spillover at Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, and later cases suggestive of a propagated source as the virus began to be transmitted from person to person (Figure 1).1

I understand your point that we have to keep a clear head because we’re still learning about all of this, and things are rapidly changing, but remember that “I don’t know” means just that-I don’t know , not “everything is fiiiine”. Quite frankly, I disagree with you that we don’t need to panic. I think we need the right amount of panic, somewhere between Trump “Merica is too Great Again for the Coronovirus” and the Americans building forts out of tolietpapaper.

Let’s put it this way, measles is again, only fatal in .2% of the cases, yet I’m guessing from your rant in the other thread that you probably have a problem with American antivaxxers who “don’t panic” about measles to the point that they fear the measles vaccine more than their kids getting measles. (Obviously not a perfect comparison, as measles causes a lot of lifelong complications, but still makes my point that people need to feel some anxiety in order to take necessary precautions).

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

@Moogue

Yes, those are the figures I have as well, and if you nip off the decimal they roughly correspond with what’s out there. Cool, we are on the same page, alarmist language notwithstanding. Still don’t know where the hospitalisation figure came from tho; I couldn’t see it in that link.

Yes, I am indeed one of those people who loathe antivaxxers. And yes, I think “loathe” is appropriate – got no objection to people who have all the facts deciding privately not to vaccinate their children, but people who spread misinformation and try and convince others not to are my sworn enemies. Also, I’m going to echo some of the other posters here and say there is no “only” about fatal measles.

If any lurking antivaxxers are about to come out of the woodwork don’t bother. I’m not going to reply to you until you have something worth replying to, and I know you don’t.

@Ohlmann

Either provide a source for that figure or stfu about it

Catalpa
Catalpa
7 months ago

even measles has “only” a .2% fatality rate nowadays

As far as I’m aware, the main problem with measles isn’t the fatality rate, it’s that it causes a compromised immune system for years afterwards, making it significantly more likely for other diseases to finish the job.

Of course, we don’t know what kind of long-term effects might happen from contracting covid-19. Suppose there’s no point to borrow trouble from the future for right now, though.

Naglfar
Naglfar
7 months ago

@Violet

got no objection to people who have all the facts deciding privately not to vaccinate their children

I personally do take issue with people who decide privately not to vaccinate children. Even if they’re not spreading their bigoted pseudoscience to others, they still hold those views, and unvaccinated people are still harmful to herd immunity and society at large. IMO the only valid reason not to vaccinate should be immune system issues that prevent it (the very people anti vaxxers endanger).

Surplus to Requirements, Observer of the Vast Blight-Wing Enstupidation
Surplus to Requirements, Observer of the Vast Blight-Wing Enstupidation
7 months ago

@Violet:

Still don’t know where the hospitalisation figure came from tho; I couldn’t see it in that link.

It’s buried in the big JAMA quote, plus it’s kind of implied rather than explicit:

However, 14% were severe (ie, dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/min, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio 50% within 24 to 48 hours), and 5% were critical

Assuming that severe-or-worse warrants hospitalization, that adds up to 19% of cases warranting hospitalization. The “20%” figure is then obviously the result of rounding.

Hambeast
Hambeast
7 months ago

I am retired and don’t go out much. But I do have eczema on my face, which means not touching it is extra hard since it itches a lot the time and not much works to stop that.

I don’t get the whole toilet paper hoarding thing. I’ve been stocking up on painkillers and cough and cold remedies. We already have a stock of tissues on hand, but that’s because Husbeast has almost constant allergies and we both recently bought a multi-pack of the stuff thinking the other had forgotten to.

The toilet paper hoarding thing even got us into a minor fender-bender last Sunday. A lady driving in a car behind us was searching for toilet paper outlets and rear-ended us because she was looking around to find the Smart and Final. No one was injured, but we have to get a new rear bumper now.

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

@Surplus

Thanks, I guess that’s it.

It’s an assumption, though, as you point out. And we still don’t know things like how long they were hospitalised for, how long that phase of the illness took, how long recovery took, where or how these tests were done, and (considering that a lot of cases are probably unreported) what it means as a percentage of total coronavirus cases. So I’m still very much reserving judgement on what it means for hospital beds, and I still think we should not be flinging it about willy-nilly and scaring people.

Look, if people have made up their minds this is Captain Trips, there’s not a lot I can say – but please do bear in mind who is listening to you. There are a lot of people out there right now who are at risk who are scared and distressed. What they need to hear is “wash your hands, don’t touch your face, perhaps cancel lunch with the girls, and if you get ill don’t go outside. Be sensible, and you have an 80pc chance of being absolutely fine.”

That’s the reverse, after all; “20pc of people who get this are hospitalised” also means “80pc of people recover with no issues.”

Moogue
Moogue
7 months ago

“nip off the decimal they roughly correspond with what’s out there”

What do you mean “nip off the decimal”,-ignore the numbers that we have? I mean, it’s one thing to say that the information that we have is preliminary and should be taken with caution, it’s another to say that we should ignore it altogether.

“Also, I’m going to echo some of the other posters here and say there is no “only” about fatal measles.

Yes, indeed, in fact I’m one of those posters. That “only” is only there because of the comparison of the fatality rates between measles and coronavirus.

“Still don’t know where the hospitalisation figure came from tho; I couldn’t see it in that link.

Box.
Key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report
72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)

Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)

Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)

Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)

Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

Age distribution (N = 44 672)

≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)

30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)

20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)

10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)

<10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

Case-fatality rate

2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)

8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

It also helpfully defines what it means by mild, severe, and critical. Anf yeah, the severe category clearly can be called hospitalization, as it’s defined by things that you will need a hospital for treatment, not just observation.

Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
Violet the Vile, Moonbat Screech Junky
7 months ago

nip off the decimal

the media, generally, do not deal in decimals; that’s the preserve of research papers such as the one you have here. I was referring to the fact that the general public will mostly seeing round numbers

The severe category clearly can be called hospitalisation

However, 14% were severe (ie, dyspnea, respiratory frequency ≥30/min, blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen ratio 50% within 24 to 48 hours.

OK, I’ve had another look at it following my comment to @Surplus, and that’s a big assumption. They have been given a blood test and their breathing and oxygen levels have been measured; could have been done at home. They might well have needed oxygen-enriched air. Also could be done at home. I’m sure some of them were in hospital, yes, but this is still not a figure of number of people hospitalised.

You’re clearly determined that medical infrastructure is going to completely collapse and people will be dying in the streets. Good luck with that.

We’re probably going to just go round in circles here, so I’m done – I’ve made all the points I want to say, and I guess I’ll leave it all up to the people reading this now.

Pink Haired Old Lady
Pink Haired Old Lady
7 months ago

@ Lumipuna

I was diagnosed in 2010 with chronic rhinitis, which caused constant coughing from post nasal drip, as well as runny nose. Since then I’ve been using a Rx steroid nasal spray, and it helps immensely. Perhaps you should ask your doctor about it.

Moogue
Moogue
7 months ago

“, I’ve had another look at it following my comment to @Surplus, and that’s a big assumption. They have been given a blood test and their breathing and oxygen levels have been measured; could have been done at home. They might well have needed oxygen-enriched air. Also could be done at home. I’m sure some of them were in hospital, yes, but this is still not a figure of number of people hospitalised.

So you ignore the tests results and decide that they weren’t really sick because they could have been tested at home or whatever. OK, but we’re talking about the test results!

Their test results indicated that they were getting into respiratory distress, you don’t wait for people to become critical and die to hospitalize them. Hence, yes “hospitalized” here means “critically sick”, not broken bones or whatever else you said.

Ohlmann
Ohlmann
7 months ago

At that point, discussing with the people who want to minimize it is a waste of time. The current news from Italy make it clear : the disease can very easily, very quickly overwhelm the hospitals of a country, so it’s urgent to make everything you can to minimize spread, to the limit of your resources and ability.

Cancels *all* your events, even weddings and burials and whatnot. Cancel all your travels. If you can telecommute, do it. If you have elderly loved one, try to not visit them too often. If you cough and have masks, use them. (it’s mostly useless to use them before you’re contaminated and supply are shorts)

That will last quite some time, like three or four month, which is why managing your ressources is so important.

Diego Duarte
Diego Duarte
7 months ago

Our president just dictated Urgent Decrees, which will close down schools, and universities for a month. Also, all gatherings of over 300 people are cancelled.

As far as governments are concerned, it seems the Brazilian administration has been infected and they were dining with the Trump administration yesterday:

https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20200312/474100754881/jefe-prensa-bolsonaro-positivo-coronavirus-cena-trump-miami.html

At this point it’s tough to determine whether they got it from the Trump administration (remember the guy at CPAC who tested positive and shook hands with Mike Pence?), or whether the Brazilians brought it in.

https://www.prensalibre.com/uncategorized/jair-bolsonaro-esta-bajo-control-medico-por-positivo-de-coronavirus-en-su-jefe-de-comunicacion/

Naglfar
Naglfar
7 months ago

@Diego Duarte
Schools are still open where I live, but the governor has declared a state of emergency and all gatherings of over 250 are banned.

Re: Trump and coronavirus
Trump refuses to be tested last I checked but he looks rather unwell. I’m not going to jump to conclusions, but it seems possible he has coronavirus. He is 73 and probably in less than perfect health, so we will have to see what happens.

Diego Duarte
Diego Duarte
7 months ago

@Naglfar

How’s the hunt for supplies and groceries going? We are only at 22 infected and people are losing their damn minds. There was a lady at the convenience store this morning, buying up all the last of the toilet paper. She had her hands full and was asking the store clerk if she didn’t have any more.

Concerning Trump, I hadn’t heard of that. But it would be rather ironic if it spread through Mike Pence, who was specifically appointed to combat the disease. Somehow I get the feeling that the Trump administration is going to do precisely the opposite and continue downplaying the severity of contagion. Makes you wonder how many world leaders are going to get infected because of their recklessness.

I don’t remember a pandemic spreading this fast before. Italy is a trainwreck.

Ohlmann
Ohlmann
7 months ago

@Diego Duarte : at that point, that just seem sensible to take that kind of restrictions.

I am sure I want Trump to get and/or die from the virus. On one hand, it’s the kind of death he deserve. On the other hand, I fear the trumpanzee reaction.

Lainy
Lainy
7 months ago

Well in person classes for my college have. Been suspended until the 27th and my spring break has been extended a week