The official number of Americans sick with coronavirus doubled over the weekend; markets are plunging. There’s a lot to talk about, so here’s a new open thread.
This tweet from Eric Trump really hasn’t aged very well.
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@ naglfar
Good point, although as Paul Schmidt said during the Nuremberg trials: “The Nazis kept talking about a thousand-year Reich but they couldn’t think ahead for five minutes.”
Would not be a surprise.
This has not been the first time I’ve been grateful to have retired from the health care industry a decade ago.
Also not been the first time I’ve regretted retiring because my immune system collapsed.
Still, given that my family has been displaced by an economic disagreement*, it’s nice that I haven’t had any spare bandwidth to worry about the pandemic.
*We thought that we could afford to pay our mortgage; the mortgage company disagreed.
O/T: TERFs have now joined forces with MRAs, and are supporting a woman who gave a “not all men” type speech on International Women’s Day.
So the theory is that the Chinese government nefariously developed a virus in order to kill Americans, and then released it in… China? That makes sense.
Okay, this is legitimately a line out of Illuminatus! It’s a throwaway gag about a guy who thinks that Chinese agents are sneaking across the border, disguised as Mexicans.
What the hell is going on? Who is running this show and what are they smoking?
Italy’s approach has been to basically go into lockdown mode. It was weird watching the news last night and seeing Rome almost totally void of traffic. Seems like the Italian government decided it would be better for people to be quarantined while well and not needing any medical help.
Meanwhile UK (and from what I understand, America too) is kind of carrying on as normal. Even as I type this I’m on a crowded train heading into London (and it is a necessary journey). Maybe I should be more worried about this virus than I really am.
Re: conservatives thinking a border wall will stop coronavirus
Charlie KIRK of TPUSA today declared that a wall will stop the “China virus” (note the dogwhistle).
A reminder from history: the Spanish flu didn’t get that name because Patient Zero was from Spain. It got that name because the Spanish press was free to report their mortality rate, unlike the presses in Germany, the UK, France, and the United States.
Going back further in history, certain STDs were always referred to with a nickname blaming the disease on foreigners: “the French disease” or “the Spanish pox” or similar.
Quite apart from this huge flaw – it’s a pretty stupid organism to develop as a biological weapon. You want something with a high kill rate which is NOT catastrophically infectious, otherwise you/your family/your organisation bringing about the downfall of society so the Third Reich can become reality all wind up getting it yourself. I mean, come on neo-Nazi manosphere, I thought you were meant to be into logic?
Trivia: the Soviets were apparently into weaponising Legionella for a while in the last century. You have to drink it to get it; it’s not human-to-human transmissible. So you could contaminate a water supply and kill a large number of people, but the outbreak would be self-limiting and controllable.
ANYWAY
TBH I am not worried about the coronavirus for most people. With my biologist hat on, I think it’s been massively overblown – and, as I think I said on another thread, I think this is because of racism and sensationalism, and I’m really so angry at the way the media is whipping this up. There’s so much hysteria and misinformation and it’s no surprise people are terrified. If ever a situation called for some reassuring “don’t panic” leadership it is now, but we don’t have those leaders, do we?
Stats at the moment are suggesting you have a 98pc chance of surviving coronavirus, and even people over 80 have a 90pc chance. (BTW please note that does not mean I am saying it’s ok for some people to die; I mean that if everyone accepted it’s unlikely they will die, and let the medical professionals help the vulnerable people who need treatment, then we might be able to a) carry on relatively normally and b) even knock that death rate down more)
This does not mean I am not concerned though.
The level of hysteria is such that those old, immune-suppressed, or otherwise vulnerable people who ARE actually at risk from coronavirus are going to have a lot of trouble getting seen by doctors or getting ambulances when they need them. People having heart attacks, or other emergencies which are not related to coronavirus, are also going to have trouble. The police are not going to be as present. Food banks aren’t getting donations because people are stockpiling, so the communities that rely on help to feed themselves are in trouble too. The economy is crashing. Basically, we have something on our hands that did not have to be a crisis if it was handled sensibly, but now definitely is one and is going to affect all of our lives for years to come. It also does not give me confidence in terms of what’s going to happen when the big one comes (the virus with an 85pc death rate and droplet transmission).
So yeah. I’m cross and worried right now, and not about coronavirus; about people.
@Violet the Vile : maybe a french POV, but I believe the medias to instill the right amount of crisis : the situation *is* dramatic, and the figure you cite are disquieting even tho there’s a pretty good chance they are underestimated. Even more important is that apparently ~20% of infected need to go to the hospital, which is what is the most problematic because as you say, hospitals will clog rather fast.
It’s just that people prefer to do what inconvenience them less, and actively trying to see less people is a lot of inconvenience when possible, and often straight up impossible, so instead a number take useless or dangerous step like stocking up too much stuff or hoarding masks. At least they know that something important is happening I guess.
I am proud to still see toilet paper at my supermarket. I am in a place where there are a lot of minority and poor peoples, so that may be a reason. They both react less hysterically and have less budget to stock up anyway.
Apparently, they were at a couple hundred cases two weeks ago, and now they’re at around 9000. So it seems like a good idea to take more drastic measures. Not because everyone will die if we all get it, but because if we all get it at once, enough people will be seriously ill to completely overwhelm the medical system.
Well, I’m going to continue self-isolating. I’ve been doing it for decades, so it’d be odd to stop now.
Not going to lie, I get jealous of the people who have to self-quarantine.
I realize that not everyone can financially withstand that, so not to be cavalier. But for me, it would be a nice break!
@WWTH : Sunnylasombra’s point seem to be more that the UK should lockdown too.
That’s hard to say, because lockdowns are very costly at the best of time, and in particular gig workers either starve or effectively ignore the lockdowns. Sure, that’s because the gig economy is a giant pile of steaming shit, but because it currently exist, policy makers need to take it into account :/
@Ohlmann
Actually, the figures are probably overestimated, not underestimated. It’s important to remember the only figures you see are the cases which have been reported and these are more likely to be severe cases. People with very mild illness are unlikely to be reporting.
Yes, they are.
However, the thing about statistics is that you can never have a 0pc chance. It’s not mathematically possible. There will always be someone who dies of an illness; even if that is because they were very elderly and frail, or had underlying health problems, if the coronavirus happens to be the thing to carry them off that goes on the death certificate and into the coronavirus stats.
The coronavirus death rate – from what we know so far, and we don’t know everything – is comparable to that of most minor illnesses.
Unless you have something I haven’t seen, this is not an official figure. In fact, atm there doesn’t seem to be official stats on how many coronavirus cases need to be hospitalised. I suspect this will be because a lot of people with the virus are being hospitalised for safety anyway, even if they don’t necessarily need hospital treatment.
Please don’t go around telling people this. It is not verified.
@wwth
yes, on a personal note I welcome the work-from-home emergency
“Trump administration orders immigration courts to immediately remove coronavirus posters”
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article241046076.html
Following negative publicity, they apparently reversed the ban.
@Violet : no, no. They are probably underestimated because just about every governement involved, except maybe the Italian one, are falsifying datas left and right. You should take thoses figures with a planet-sized grain of salt, and thoses governemnts all have interested in minimizing the crisis.
And the 20% figure, who maybe is underestimated too, come from the China CDC stats. They are stats about that, if you didn’t find them you didn’t tried to find them, as it’s one of the most recurring figure.
In short, you probably should stop to say lies like that. Minimizing the catastrophe isn’t helping.
@ FlyByKiwi:
Lot of that going around….
re: work-from-home
Getting that set up now, tho I could’a stood to have a couple more weeks….
Also getting my retirement business set up, tho I had to pull my $ from the investment account now, as it might not BE there in July….
ANNNND the equipment I’m not quite ready to buy is… “made in China” (because of course it is), so the only units available are what’s in stock in U.S. Can’t really be sure I’d GET it if I ordered it….
Overall, tho, I’m in much better shape than others I know of, many on here. Robert, hope you can come to an “agreement” with the finance barons, hope everyone can stay safe.
I know I should be more concerned about the current pandemic/panicdemic… but I wash my hands after potty, and I’m in relative good health. Not enuf spoons to assimilate that anxiety.
You all know this, but Obama and the Chinese are building a wall between Central America and China.
Oy….
@Rabbid Rabbit
I’ve already seen such comments. They call it the “Boomer virus”.
But if the idea of a pandemic that will mostly affect Boomers and tank the economy seems great to them, it’s because they aren’t thinking ahead.
Discounting the obvious lack of empathy, we could see a Wuhan situation unfold: where the biggest disaster were the draconian measures imposed by the government. Anyone wanna bet that either Miller or Trump would postpone the elections to maintain public order? Same if the economy tanks and people start protesting like OWS. He would probably call it a coup and postpone elections indefinitely.
Not to mention societal collapse is a scary thing. Generalized lack of supplies and access to essential services affects everybody but the poor get hit the hardest. Those cheering for the virus will usher in their own demise.
@Ohlmann
I do not appreciate being called a liar. You can disagree with me as much as you like; but personal attack is not ok.
Governments may falsify figures – it seems a bit conspiracy theorist to say that, and I wouldn’t have thought they have the wherewithal right now, but whatever – but the World Health Organisation doesn’t. Neither do the researchers who are already working in Wuhan, and whose very interesting paper about viral load I was just reading (apparently viral load is an indicator of coronavirus outcome, much as in HIV)
Firstly, no, it has not. I can’t find any figure like that released by the CDC. (Although of course if you can link me I will be happy to admit I’m wrong)
Secondly could I please remind you that “hospitalised” is not the same as “severely ill”. Most countries (including China) have been hospitalising people with minor illness – for isolation purposes. That’s not the same as treatment purposes! All “hospitalised” means is they are in hospital!
We didn’t have to have a catastrophe. We are having one because of people spreading completely unverified bollocks and breeding unnecessary panic in others.
@Ohlmann
I wasn’t trying to imply that UK should go into lockdown mode, I was comparing the different responses to the crisis. Britain should perhaps do something other than carry on as normal, but it would be very disruptive.
Violet,
Really not loving the attitude that something’s going to kill the elderly or immunocompramised, might as well be Covid-19.
In fact, I’d argue that we don’t take “minor” illness like flu seriously enough. A lot of people die unnecessarily because sick people either can’t or won’t stay home.
Plus, the hospital system doesn’t have the capacity to hospitalize a significant number of the population. Especially considering that doctors and nurses are getting sick.
It’s true that people don’t need to panic and think the world is ending. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t take it seriously. Until there’s a vaccine, it’s still dangerous.
Fox News is now claiming that coronavirus is a democratic conspiracy to create a recession to make Trump look bad. The headline of choice is “Coronavirus Impeachment Scam.”