A top Iranian military leader — Qassim Soleimani,
commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force — has been killed in an airstrike on Baghdad ordered by Donald Trump. Soleimani was an incredibly popular and powerful political figure; this is a political assassination that will inspire violent retaliation and could very well lead us into a full-scale war with Iran.
Why would Trump do this? It’s not too hard to guess — during Obama’s term Trump repeatedly charged that Obama would launch an attack on Iran for political gain, and history suggests that Trump’s accusations are almost always projections.
Trump’s only explanation for the assassination so far? He tweeted a blurry clipart US flag.
I think it’s safe to say we’re all in deep shit now.
Open thread. No trolls.
Send tips to dfutrelle at gmail dot com.
We Hunted the Mammoth relies entirely on readers like you for its survival. If you appreciate our work, please send a few bucks our way! Thanks!
Oh great, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis the Iraqi military commander was also killed in the strike. They were on a joint operation. That’s going down well as you can imagine.
@Naglfar : what is their interests in that ? The US would not agree to a mock war if it’s not a decisive, humiliating victory, and the Irak need to give the impression of being able to stand up to the US to make a persian spring less likely.
@Alan Robertshaw : yay. The only thing we missed was a stronger reason for the iraqi to have to evict the american.
I guess at that level, the ball is in the camp of the US. If they agree to withdraw, things should be catastrophic. If they don’t, things should be significantly worse than catastrophic.
Given that this was a targeted assassination of someone not considered to be a legitimate terrorist target, I wouldn’t fancy being one of Trump’s offspring right now. Lots of attack surface there. Car bombs driven into Trump properties also seems plausible.
Some commentary on the legal aspects from the UN special rappateur…
https://twitter.com/agnescallamard/status/1212939646549856267?fbclid=IwAR3uRYRKiGjUzg85k1x28mEY1ADI1qUCvr-LdHBpbYk91vwzKhRY48kU85U
I was sure 2020 was going to suck, but damn, it really hit the ground running!
@Alan:
“We are your friends and are here to help, but we reserve the right to assassinate anyone on your soil, including your own senior military” is really not a good look.
FWIW from my non-expert perspective:
I don’t think this will lead to war because Iran isn’t stupid, but I do think that Trumpfuck essentially just gave Iran control of Iraq (in addition to its control of Lebanon and joint control of Syria). The stupid shitstain also managed to torpedo any social pressure that his sanctions put on the Iranian regime.
I have no idea what the direct Iranian response will be, but these two larger factors alone make it a stupid move, although I’m seconding Ohlmann that Soleimani was a piece of crap and from a personal responsibility angle reaped what he had sown.
@Simon: I doubt Iran will assassinate any Trump spawn until after he’s out of office, since a personal attack like that might lead to nukes. Once he doesn’t have access to the football, however, I suspect Trump might not have any kids in fairly short order….
@personalpest Andrew Scheer was the leader of the Conservatives, the party that came very close to winning power in the last election. He is generally hawkish and would have been a lot more likely to take us into a war. Prime Minster Trudeau, for all his (many) flaws, generally tries to promote peace.
I hope we can stay out of it. Somehow I suspect Trump just Leeroy Jenkinsed us all into a war.
@Gaebolga, it probably wouldn’t be difficult for DHS to extend the Secret Service protective mission to Trump’s large adult offspring after he’s out of office. Whether they’d accept that, I don’t know: being followed around by SS would somewhat limit their criminal opportunities, I suppose.
@ moggie
From 1:53
I do like the diplomatic response of France, even if it will probably dissuade no one from continuing the fuckery.
(basically it’s “Trump, you moron, you endangered us all”
One thing we’ve learned (or, failed to learn) from past wars is, there are only two outcomes: Stay, or go home. “Winning” isn’t possible because these wars aren’t fought over territory, they’re fought over philosophy, religion, oil, etc.
The trumpling view of war, however, is ALWAYS “France in 1944,” where if we just hit A LITTLE harder, “they” will stop fighting…. and become xian, and recognize OUR obvious superiority, etc. etc.
Wasn’t Junior whining about his SS detail a few years back?
*quickly runs Google search*
…apparently he gave up his Secret Service detail back in 2017.
Moggie for the win.
This song could be redone with only a few name changes in the call out section (all Bushes, fuck you to all Trumps, fuck you) and it would apply exactly
https://youtu.be/96KUYsaFVQA
Nothing ever seems to change.
WWTH : I would argue that history is not a circle (everything happen again) but a black spiral (everything happen again, but *worse*)
@Ohlmann
Well, that’s accurate.
@Moggie
It seems they’ve given up their detail, but it doesn’t seem that Trump’s detail has gotten in the way of his crimes so far. My guess is that if anyone could find a way to commit crimes around the secret service, it would be the Trump family.
@Weird Eddie
And neither of those options are really helpful in most cases, seeing as they leave many dead and don’t usually provide any gains. It seems that WarGames is accurate yet again: the only winning move is not to play.
Am I the only one wondering if Trump sees this as “Obama only killed one bad guy, and there was dancing in the streets, so now that I’ve killed TWO bad guys…”?
(Of course, we aren’t dancing in the streets because the average American had NO idea who these guys were before yesterday.)
Whatever the thinking, I’m sick to my stomach.
That’s … more complicated than “stay, or go home”.
The USA and France are big specialists of instating colonies in all-but-name, by putting up a tyrant so that the liege country can direct their politics for the few area where it’s useful. China is getting in on the action, too. (often by recruiting old french client tyrants by treating them slightly better)
Now, *sure*, since the 2000, there have been some very spectaculary failed attempt at that, like Irak and Afghanistan. I don’t know if the American successfully instated any dictator in the XXIth century, but France sure did during the meantime. That’s why thoses hawks want a war : it’s not only that they are murderous delusional fuckwags, but they are murderous delusional fuckwags that want more slave countries. It’s one of the most lucrative thing anybody can do.
Heck, it’s pretty much such an operation that created Iran to begin with.
Now, it’s probable that the americans will fail very, very hard in Iran. But mostly because they don’t really care looking at the odds beforehand, since the cost of a failed attempt isn’t incurred by them. So they just try every time they can.
I’m so tired of being scared all the time.
@Viscaria
I’m tired too. The last 3 years seem to have dragged on for decades with little sleep.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/02/manhood-mental-health-masculinity
I don’t think Trump *intends* to start a war. He’s a one-off-strike kinda guy. But there’s every chance this is going to snowball.
On the one hand, the usual US allies for a war in the mid-east are waaaay less likely to support one right now. And Iran’s not in a great position to start a new war, either – especially not one against a state with a demonstrably unstable leader and nukes.
But, yeah, a really awful precedent has been set and I’d hate to be the Trump kids after 45 leaves office. I’d also hate to be the shmuck stuck running 45’s Secret Service detail for the rest of his life.
Meanwhile, how is China reacting to all this? Global conflicts are bad for business.
China have said “chill out guys” basically. Practically speaking they stay neutral and don’t tip their hands if they want a particular outcome for that mess.
China, Russia, and Iran are conducting joint naval exercises this week. So I guess that tells us how China is reacting.
@Johanna: arguably, by assassinating a senior member of another country’s government he has already started a war. If Iran openly assassinated the secretary of defense it would be considered an act of war.