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I just got back from voting – why were there people signing a blue sheet that read “Loyalty Oath”? I never saw that before. I tried to google it but couldn’t find what it was about.
Which is just fucking bizarre. Like, I’ve read every article he’s posted this year, and I still can’t figure out a reason for it past “Unskewing™.” Any ideas?
If he’s just trying to shake voters out of complacency… He could do that without, frankly, lying.
Even though I’m not from or in the States, this debacle has certainly dragged me to the real world again, away from the decidedly non-political, self-indulgent, intellectually one-track-minded non-awful la la land of nope-not-dealing-with-this-right-now where I’ve been holed up for the last few months because boy howdy, this is what it’s been leading up to. This is the culmination of all the worrying and outright terror at the prospect of USA, a powerful country in a position capable of sending a clear message indicating what the political landscape might look like in the western world in the near future, potentially choosing Donald Trump for president.
Aside from everything else, choosing Trump would at the very least send the message that bigotry, racism, white supremacy, misogyny, intolerance, egotism, and ignorance are no obstacles on the way to becoming one of the most powerful people on the planet; they might rather work in your favor. That bullies can and should have power. That our modern world glorifies ethical bankruptcy and values power and fear above all.
I hate what the political climate in my country has become after we were ignorant enough to vote a bunch of right-wing assholes into power a few years ago. Now, thanks to a combination of free market capitalism bullshit rhetoric and one ultra-racist governing party we have growing economic inequality, an increasingly private-run (and increasingly shitty) health care system, a continuos war on refugees, immigrants, the unemployed, and the low-wage workers and a rise of racist and white supremacist groups. Nobody bats an eyelash at outright Nazi rhetoric that would have been unheard of just a few years ago. Yes, there’s been pushback against it, but I still hate it that it ever got this far.
/hopeless rant of hopelessness. Sorry, I might be a bit emotional and overtly melodramatic at the moment.
I’d better not, I’m a Canadian.
@Ooglyboggles
Honestly, I don’t think ANY of the poll aggregators counted on a Latino vote surge. That actually sways in Silver’s favor: he’s not predicting a Clinton loss, he’s predicting a Clinton win but with a lot of uncertainty. It could wind up as a narrow victory, or it could wind up in a blowout for Clinton, and if either happens his prediction would be more accurate than other aggregators.
Speaking of evaluating the poll aggregators, I set up a spreadsheet. We’ll find out later tonight who had the best prediction.
This election will probably be called by the time CST results roll in, but I’m not gonna be able to sleep until HI reports
Re: Nate Silver
I’m loath to lay a charge of fuckery on him or his model. I just don’t see any evidence that there’s some shenanigans going on. The model has limitations, but that’s not the same as him actively falsifying his estimates
Apparently Trump’s son did that too. Oops!
I voted a few weeks ago because I’m living overseas, so today has been a bit anticlimactic for me. But I voted for Hillary and I voted to help flip the Senate (even though the Democratic candidate is almost certain to win in my state).
I did early voting but I’m a mess today. Can’t tell if my anxiety is about to shoot through the roof or if I’m gonna just dissociate and feel nothing.
Meanwhile, my father, a Trumpfucker, is yukking it up while he taunts female family members with “READY FOR THE ELECTION RESULTS????” because it’s all a big fucking joke to him.
I’ll be locking myself in my bedroom with ice cream and my #NastyWomen playlist.
How to have a heart attack: See a thread on a random board that says “It’s all over. America is officially dead, RIP.”
Then realise they’re a Trump supporter and feel a lot better.
I got interrupted by having to actually do my job halfway through typing this so maybe the conversation has moved on, but regarding 538 and Latin voters…
I think it’s because polls of likely voters are more reliable than a poll of first time voters would be. The high Latinx turnout has been due to a backlash against Trump’s racism and xenophobia, it’s a factor that’s hard to measure against previous elections. I do think it’s been a mistake for 538 to not account for it after the early voting consistently showed high turn out though.
I would if I could, but I’m British. I suppose we’re the 51st state tho now aren’t we? I don’t see there’s going to be much of a ‘special relationship’ if Trumpton wins 🙁
http://chuckleberriesonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/VOTE.jpg
you can do it!
you can do the thing!
http://iambrony.steeph.tp-radio.de/mlp/gif/nLaPv.gif
get that saran-wrapped bag of orange peels outta here!
you can do it America!
Hrm. This post is confusing. I have no idea what David is trying to say. He should be more clear.
On an unrelated note, I voted today! Woo. Go Clinton!
Trump supporters trying to start race riots at the polls.
Cranky. Moved to Florida last month, registered before the hurricane-extended deadline, got my voter card. Was told today that my registration went in “after the books were closed” so I was given a provisional ballot. No sure how that jibes with *having received my voter card*. Wondering if I’d have heard the same story if I’d gotten my FL driver’s license–haven’t managed that yet.
I’ll defend Nate Silver. When you’re predicting something like an election, you should allow more room for uncertainty. It’s very important to get out and vote if you can.
@Mels Internet hugs if you’d like them. <3
@Sarah, that pie looks so rich. Would have to eat it while listening to Schadenfreude by Avenue Q – https://youtu.be/55fzXL3uc1s
Oh, I should check to see if Colbert’s election night special will be showing on any canuck channels (he said it’s on Showtime in the States)
James O’Keefe being his usual self.
A little blunt, but I guess it gets the message across, don’t it 🙂
@Dreamer
I hadn’t heard yet of “Loyalty Oaths” at polling stations. It sounds like something straight out of Catch-22. Anyone know more about this?
The BBC has just had someone on explaining about polling. They said that the Hispanic vote tends to be under represented because pollsters don’t use enough Spanish speakers so that skews the results.
<3 Anarchonist, <3 Mels. This election has been the absolute worst. I wouldn’t even really blame it on the election, though, the election’s just been the expression of the worst aspects of western politics bearing fruit. People are sick of the corporate corruption that’s wormed itself into the heart of democracies around the world. Trump and Sanders rose as the voice of that anger, and – well. They mostly ignored Sanders during the primaries, but the media loved to feed Trump, because he made good entertainment. So here we are.
It’ll get better! It may take awhile, and it may not be easy, but it will get better!
I did early voting back in October, which I’m happy I did because I’m sick. And I possibly have to babysit tomorrow.
This is my second presidential election and I really hope it’s the last one this fucking terrifying, please.
Also, following WWTH footsteps, I decided to do something blue for Clinton but since I’ve got no booze, I changed my my icon to Chloe Price, who is very precious and blue and I would sacrafice towns for.
Wondering who Melania voted for? So does Donald, apparently:
Ohmigosh Trump stop being such a horrible person please I can’t take it anymore
… and so it begins….
Most states have no laws about guns in polling places; some elections officials think that could be a problem this year
… just out exercising my Constitutional right to stand in the door of the polling place with my AR-15 and shout clever things at approaching people of color….
(previous post contains sarcasm)
@ Moggie
Wouldn’t it be a hoot and a holler if she voted against the Cheeto???
Oh, and (if we get out of this alive), this might just convince the Supreme Court that the Voting Rights Act should have STAYED IN EFFECT!!!