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CDC: MRA claims that “40% of rapists are women” are based on bad math and misuse of our data

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Feminists often complain, with considerable justification, that Men’s Rights Activists try to turn every conversation about women’s issues into a game of “what about the men?” You’re talking about female rape victims — well, what about the male rape victims?

The trouble with this strategy, from the point of view of the Men’s Rights Activists anyway, is that this little “gotcha” is much less of a “gotcha” then they’d like it to be.

In the case of rape, for example, feminists are well aware that men are raped as well: the “Don’t Be That Guy” ad campaign, which sent so many MRAs into hysterics, focused on male victims as well as female ones. The emergency room rape advocate organization that a friend of mine volunteers for  provides advocacy for victims regardless of gender.

So many MRAs have started playing another game: trying to twist the conversation around in order to cast women as the villains. Rape is a bit tough for them here, since the overwhelming majority of rapists are male. So MRAs talk about the alleged epidemic of female false accusers instead. Or they change the topic entirely and make dead baby jokes (see my post yesterday).

Recently, MRAs have tried a new strategy, seizing on data from The National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey, a massive study conducted in 2010 under the aegis of the Centers for Disease Control, to claim that “40% of rapists are women.”

This is a claim repeated by numerous MRAs on numerous websites; see, for example, this post by A Voice for Men’s Typhonblue on the blog GendErratic. Here’s the same claim made into an “infographic” for the Men’s Rights subreddit.

Trouble is, this claim is flat-out false, based on an incorrect understanding of the NISVS data. But you don’t have to take my word for it: the NISVS researchers themselves say the MRA “interpretation” of their data is based on bad math. It’s not just a question of different definitions of rape: the MRA claims are untenable even if you include men who were “made to penetrate” women as victims of rape (as the MRAs do)  rather than as victims of “sexual violence other than rape” (as the NISVS does).

I wrote to the NISVS for clarification of this matter recently, and got back a detailed analysis, straight from the horse’s mouth, of where the MRA arguments went wrong. This is long, and a bit technical, but it’s also pretty definitive, so it’s worth quoting in detail. (I’ve bolded some of the text below for emphasis, and broken some of the larger walls of text into shorter paragraphs.)

It appears that the math used to derive an estimated percentage of female rapists … is flawed.  First, we will summarize the assertion and what we perceive to be the basis for the assertion.

According to the web links, the “40% of rapists were women” was derived from these two steps:

1)      Combining the estimated number of female rape victims with the estimated number of being-made-to-penetrate male victims in the 12 months prior to the survey to conclude that about 50% of the rape or being-made-to-penetrate victims were males;

2)      Multiplying the estimated percentage (79%) of male being-made-to-penetrate victims who reported having had female perpetrators in these victims’ lifetime with the 50% obtained in step 1 to claim that 40% of perpetrators of rape or being-made-to-penetrate were women.

None of these calculations should be used nor can these conclusions be correctly drawn from these calculations.

First the researchers clarify the issue of definition:

To explain, in NISVS we define rape as “any completed or attempted unwanted vaginal (for women), oral, or anal penetration through the use of physical force (such as being pinned or held down, or by the use of violence) or threats to physically harm and includes times when the victim was drunk, high, drugged, or passed out and unable to consent.”

We defined sexual violence other than rape to include being made to penetrate someone else, sexual coercion, unwanted sexual contact, and non-contact unwanted sexual experiences. Made to penetrate is defined as including “times when the victim was made to, or there was an attempt to make them, sexually penetrate someone without the victim’s consent because the victim was physically forced (such as being pinned or held down, or by the use of violence) or threatened with physical harm, or when the victim was drunk, high, drugged, or passed out and unable to consent.”

The difference between “rape” and “being made to penetrate” is that in the definition of rape the victim is penetrated; “made to penetrate” by definition refers to cases where the victim penetrated someone else.

While there are multiple definitions of rape and sexual violence used in the field, CDC, with the help of experts in the field, has developed these specific definitions of rape and other forms of sexual violence (such as made to penetrate, sexual coercion, unwanted sexual contact, and non-contact unwanted sexual experiences). We use these definitions to help guide our analytical decisions.

Now the researchers get into the details of the math:

Regarding the specific assertion in question, several aspects of mistreatments of the data and the published estimates occurred in the above derivation:

A.      While the percentage of female rape victims and the percentage of male being-made-to-penetrate victims were inferred from the past 12-month estimates by combining two forms of violence, the percentage of perpetrator by sex was taken from reported estimates for males for lifetime (a misuse of the percentage of male victims who reported only female perpetrators in their lifetime being made to penetrate victimization).  This mismatch of timeframes is incorrect because the past 12-month victimization cannot be stretched to equate with lifetime victimization.  In fact, Table 2.1 and 2.2 of the NISVS 2010 Summary Report clearly report that lifetime rape victimization of females (estimated at 21,840,000) is about 4 times the number of lifetime being made-to-penetrate of males (estimated at 5,451,000).

B.      An arithmetic confusion appears when multiplying the two percentages together to conclude that the product is a percentage of all the “rapists”, an undefined perpetrator population.  Multiplying the percentage of male victims (as derived in step 1) above) to the percentage of male victims who had female perpetrators cannot give a percentage of perpetrators mathematically because to get a percentage of female rape perpetrators, one must have the total rape perpetrators (the denominator), and the number of female perpetrators of this specific violence (the numerator).  Here, neither the numerator nor the denominator was available.

C.      Data collected and analyzed for the NISVS 2010 have a “one-to-multiple” structure (where the “one” refers to one victim and the “multiple” refers to multiple perpetrators).  While not collected, it is conceivable that any perpetrator could have multiple victims.  These multiplicities hinder any attempt to get a percentage of perpetrators such as the one described in steps 1) and 2), and nullify the reverse calculation for obtaining a percent of perpetrators.

For example, consider an example in which a girl has eight red apples while a boy has two green apples.  Here, 50% of the children are boys and another 50% are girls.  It is not valid to multiply 50% (boy) with 100% (boy’s green apples) to conclude that “50% of all the apples combined are green”.  It is clear that only 20% of all the apples are green (two out of 10 apples) when one combines the red and green apples together.  Part of the mistake in the deriving of the “50%” stems from a negligence to take into account the inherent multiplicity: a child can have multiple apples (just as a victim can have multiple perpetrators).

D.      As the study population is U.S. adults in non-institutional settings, the sample was designed to be representative of the study population, not the perpetrator population (therefore no sampling or weighting is done for the undefined universe of perpetrators).  Hence, while the data can be analyzed to make statistical inferences about the victimization of U.S. adults residing in non-institutional settings, the NISVS data are incapable of lending support to any national estimates of the perpetrator population, let alone estimates of perpetrators of a specific form of violence (say, rape or being-made-to-penetrate).

E.      Combining the estimated past 12-month female rape victims with the estimated past 12-month being-made-to-penetrate male victims cannot give an accurate number of all victims who were either raped or being-made-to-penetrate, even if this combination is consistent with CDC’s definition.

Besides a disagreement with the definitions of the various forms of violence given in the NISVS 2010 Summary Report, this approach of combining the 12-month estimated number of female rape victims with the 12-month estimated number of male victims misses victims in the cells where reliable estimates were not reported due to small cell counts failing to meet statistical reliability criteria.  For any combined form of violence, the correct analytical approach for obtaining a national estimate is to start at the raw data level of analysis, if such a creation of a combined construct is established.

So you’re going to need to go back to the drawing board, MRAs.

What is especially distressing here is that the NISVS data could have been the starting point for a serious discussion of male victims of sexual assault by women, which is a real and often overlooked issue. Unfortunately, MRAs have once again poisoned the well by misusing data in an attempt to exaggerate the purported villainy of women and score cheap rhetorical points.

NOTE: A regular in the AgainstMensRights subreddit approached the NISVS researchers with this same question some months back. Unfortunately, the statement they got back from the NISVS contained an incorrect number. The statement I’m quoting here corrects this number and adds more context.

I can provide contact info for the NISVS representative who got back to me on this to any serious (non-troll) person who requests it.

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Ash
Ash
11 years ago

“I just went through the whole thread to see what Ash is on about and I still don’t get it. Argue all you want that being made to penetrate should be lumped in with rape, but it’s pretty fucking dishonest to pretend that he’s classified MTP as a “lesser offense.” The leading question with which you end your latest comment is the cherry on top.

When did you stop beating your wife, Ash?”

Actually, I point out my logic in the comment just above yours. The fact is that in many states sexual assault carries a lesser penalty than rape itself. The cultural view of the crime of rape versus sexual assault differs as well. They’re both serious, but they are treated differently.

I’m merely curious at to Mr. Futrelle’s reasoning for defending the definition at this point.

I do appreciate the insinuation I’m committing domestic abuse on an imaginary wife though.

I’ll have to tell my genderqueer partner that they’ve been F.a.a.b. this whole time and apparently I’m beating them and we both didn’t know.

kittehserf
11 years ago

Ash, protip: unknown commenters need to make themselves very clear when coming into threads (a whole blog, for that matter) where everyone is all too used to MRA trolls coming in saying “But women aren’t raped! False accusations! What about men who are raped? GOTCHA!” Because that is how your questions have been coming across.

Second – I don’t know if you’re familiar with it or not, but “have you stopped beating your wife?” is a familiar example of the loaded question. That’s the significance of it, not that you are married to a woman, or beat her, or not. Check the reference I’ve linked.

Ash
Ash
11 years ago

Kitteh, thank you for that. However, I admit I posted my original question in haste. It was a rough and stupid editing job.

I posted “So, I’m asking again, what is your justification and reasoning behind classifying it as a lesser offense?”

What I was meaning was this.

“So, I’m asking again, what is your reasoning/justification behind supporting the definition that classifies it as a lesser offense?”

I hope the distinction is clear now.

kittehserf
11 years ago

Thanks for clarifying, Ash. I think David explained his thinking on it upthread, didn’t he?

Argh. I think I’ve used up the last of the evening’s brain energy. Niters, all!

Ash
Ash
11 years ago

Unfortunately, he does not. He only said that he supports them being separated. He didn’t go into his reasoning for it.

Argenti Aertheri
11 years ago

Ash — idk about in David’s home state, but in mine there is no crime of “rape” — it’s all degrees of “sexual assault”. Under those definitions it really is a matter of semantics. But given the cultural use of the word rape, I agree that it should be called rape.

And, if it isn’t rude to ask, as a user of gender neutral pronouns (ze / zir), I’m curious what pronouns your partner uses? And yourself, since those would be useful in discussing your comments here (I just got up, please excuse any awkward wording)

——

T -30 ’till my appt with my psych to discuss my complaints with how they filled out my fucking form for the lawyer for my SSI hearing. Someone invent IV caffeine and put some in me.

titianblue
titianblue
11 years ago

a lesser offense

Yep, let’s be clear about this. Sexual assault should never be thought of as a lesser offense. It may be classified as a different offense but noone should ever be telling anyone that their violation was lesser.

titianblue
titianblue
11 years ago

Just to clarify:

For the purposes of a scientifically conducted survey on sexual crime, it may work best (either because of the size of the data cells or because of outside constraints eg how different crimes are treated by the law or regarded by the victims themselves) to sort the crimes into certain groupings. As I read it, CDC have separated “made to penetrate” into a separate category to their “rape” category for reasons connected to the mechanics/science of the survey. This does not mean that CDC regard “made to penetrate” as in any way less of a crime that those under their “rape” category. It doesn’t even mean that they don’t regard it as a rape.

Ash
Ash
11 years ago

Titianblue, I understand entirely, and I agree. I meant that culturally people give different weights to those terms. Both are fairly seriously regarded and many people consider them the same level of violation regardless of the dynamics of who’s involved.

My key part of my argument was a point being made about there being a difference in punishment that varies from state to state depending on the classification being a general sexual assault or listed as a rape.

Some places, like Canada, don’t have a separate classification for rape. It’s all considered sexual assault. But here in the US Rape is often treated as an especially heinous sub-category of sexual assault.

As for the CDC… I think that stuck with the current federal definitions to the letter. Their job is collecting and interpreting data, not making political statements.

I would’ve appreciated the CDC treating it as rape. At times the survey seems to juxtaposition information as if to implicitly treat MTP that way. However, I think the desire to avoid treading into what may get them in unnecessary political hot water. Essentially, they didn’t want to start an argument if they didn’t have to (no matter how unlikely that argument might be).

I know that several people, including myself, have sent casual inquiries as to why they didn’t classify it as rape. The responses generally came back as “Because it’s not defined as such.” With no real further qualifier.

Howard Bannister
11 years ago

When you do a survey like this, how would you classify, for example, somebody who was both penetrated and made to penetrate?

Not a hypothetical; I’m thinking now of somebody who I have spoken with on this topic.

(and that story is fully as horrible as it sounds, but that’s not my story to tell, so we’ll just leave it at that, okay?)

Even if we do broadly refer to it as rape, for a victimization survey like this to break it out and treat it as separate is different, I think, from treating it as separate in discourse and in law. Does that make sense?

Howard Bannister
11 years ago

…all of which doesn’t actually answer Ash’s underlying question and concern, except to say ‘but even if that you were correct and we all agreed with you, I think we would want to keep it separate on this survey.’

My, I’m mealy-mouthed today. Lots of disclaimers, very little added to the discourse. *sigh* Too many meetings, too much management-speak.

titianblue
titianblue
11 years ago

Ash, I do get what you’re saying. It’s akin to the reverse situation when @everydaysexism on Twitter clarified that being groped was sexual assault, under UK law. a lot of young people have been astounded because something that had become normalised for them, particularly in clubs or on public transport, perfectly met the legal definition of what they would regard as a serious crime. By labelling something, we can give it a greater or lesser importance in society’s eyes.

For me, it makes it all the more heinous that the AVfM’s of this world ignore male rape and sexual assault victims in favour of putting the hate-rage on women.

Ally S
11 years ago

@Blair

How deliciously ironic. You accuse the CDC of attacking a straw man, and then you assume that you have addressed its only argument.

Even if the CDC is incorrect about the specifics of the calculation, its other criticisms of the ~40% figure are valid. First, the number of rapes perpetrated by women is not the same as the total number of female rapists, for the reasons outlined by the NISVS representative. Second, as the email says, “the sample was designed to be representative of the study population, not the perpetrator population.” Third, and most importantly, the percentages of the sex of the perpetrators is only for lifetime rates, not 12-month rates. The sample for lifetime incidence and the sample for 12-month incidence can’t be assumed to be equally representative, so applying a statistic found in a lifetime figure to a 12-month figure makes no sense.

Tamen
11 years ago

David,

thank you for replying. For your information I have copied the full reply in this post on my blog.

You wrote:

Calling something a sexual assault, or “sexual violence other than rape” does not diminish it or erase the experience of the person who suffered it.

See, this I disagree with. Lydia Cuomo and Aravella Simotas disagrees with this. I bet many of the good people who’ve fought to have “spousal rape” being called rape, many of the people who fought to expand the definition of rape beyond the violent forceful rape by strangers would disagree.

How many mainstream media articles on the NISVS 2010 Report did you see report:

1 in 5 women and 1 in 71 men have been raped in their lifetime

versus

1 in 5 women and 1 in 71 men have been raped and 1 in 20 men have been made to have intercourse without their consent

The first one effectively erases the existence of the 4.8% of men who were victims of this.

The “sexual violence other than rape” also included the act “Non-contact unwanted sexual experiences” – a category most would agree is less serious than being forced to have intercourse. Would you say that is a natural grouping?
Being forced to have intercourse without consent and for instance catcalling?

Tamen
11 years ago

Fun fact, the CDC did not use their own definition of rape (authored in 2002 and published online in 2009 by some of the same authors as the NISVS 2010 Report) when they wrote the NISVS 2010 Report.

CDC definition of rape – which is linked to from the homepage of the NISVS; http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/sexualviolence/definitions.html

That definition does not exclude victims who had penetrative intercourse where they weren’t the one being penetrated.

Yet, despite the stressing that “consistent definitions” are important they deviated from this when they wrote the NISVS 2010 Report.

Argenti Aertheri
11 years ago

“When you do a survey like this, how would you classify, for example, somebody who was both penetrated and made to penetrate?”

Afaik, they’d be counted once in each category.

Shaun DarthBatman Day
11 years ago

Tamen, are you saying that catcalling = groping someone on public transit? There are levels of sexual assault. Before you accuse me, read the rest of my comments where I disagree with MTP not being called rape, but ffs you’re not doing yourself any favours by using what is clearly a false equivalency to call out false non equivalency. And *no one* here, especially Dave, has ever thought that MTP is on par with catcalling. Debate honestly, or don’t bother.

Ally S
11 years ago

I agree that forced envelopment should be called what it is: rape. I understand the NISVS’s reasons for calling it something else, but at the very least, outside the context of sexual victimization surveys, it really shouldn’t be called anything else than rape. Not only does calling it rape make sense given that penetration still occurs in forced envelopment, but it also empowers victims; rape, of course, is trivialized in society, but at the same time, rape is still recognized as worse than non-penetrative forms of sexual assault. In fact, sometimes rape is seen as the only “real” kind of sexual violence. (Think about how many victims of non-consensual groping are told “Well, it’s not like you were raped or anything.”) Therefore, calling forced envelopment rape helps to not only bring attention to more rapists, but also validate the feelings of many victims. So I’m not comfortable at all with not calling it rape.

titianblue
titianblue
11 years ago

@tamen, see Bee’s comment on the previous page of comments and mine above. The CDC may define MTP as rape but the researchers will have been restricted by how their source data is collected.

SittieKitty
11 years ago

Afaik, they’d be counted once in each category.

Wouldn’t that count the one person double? And in a survey of one year reports and lifetime reports, I feel like this survey couldn’t be very accurate when determining sexual assaults per capita like that. Because of the rate of recidivism, and the rates of multiple encounters, it’s only possible to use lifetime stats, otherwise the numbers are incorrect…

Plus, while I agree that I include penetration in any way (made-to and being) as rape, I think that separating them is a distinction that was required to avoid precisely the issue we’re all discussing – that penetration is something that’s culturally defined as being penetrated and that is going to necessarily erase male victims who have been forced to penetrate. I think they should have been included in the rape category though, just like coercion, facilitated, ect are all rape as well.

SittieKitty
11 years ago

I should mention, my top paragraph is both a response to Argenti, and a dig at the conflation of lifetime/one year stats that the MRAs use. It’s not a dig at Argenti, they’re definitely the most math-impressive person I know.

cloudiah
11 years ago

Tamen is the most dishonest & passive aggressive arguer I have ever encountered. Seriously, when I find myself in agreement with him (as in believing being MTP = rape), it makes me question my conclusions. Another example of how the MRM shoots itself in the foot at every opportunity, I guess.

hellkell
hellkell
11 years ago

Tamen is a disingenuous creep. All we need now is for TS to show up, and the circle of dishonesty will be complete.

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