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Fun with charts, or why MGTOWers don't understand marriage trends

As we’ve seen again and again on this blog, misogynists love to talk about how much better men are than women when it comes to things like math, logic, and scientific thinking generally. Unfortunately, their posts and comments online – filled with breathtaking failures of logic, absurd unsourced assertions and magical thinking — do not seem to bear out this hypothesis.  I would compare the scientific thinking of most manosphere misogynists with that of the creationists, but frankly that would be insulting to creationists.

A case in point: a graph – provenance unknown – posted in a recent MGTOWforums discussion of marriage. The standard line amongst the lady haters is that marriage is on the way out , because men are “waking up” to the evils of marriage in an allegedly feminist state and deciding to, well, go their own way. The reality: while the marriage rate has been falling fairly steadily for the last quarter-century or so, for a variety of reasons, most people do marry at some point in their lives; it would be silly to assume that a trend over the course of several decades heralds the death of a social institution that has lasted (and has had many previous ups and downs) for millennia.

Of course, that’s not the way the MGTOWers in question see it. Their proof that marriage is doomed – doomed, I say – lies in this little graph which charts with mathematical precision the exact date range within which marriage will vanish forever from this good earth:

That's not right.

Now, there are many problems with this little graph. For one thing, what happens AFTER the projected marriage rate goes to zero? Does the marriage rate bounce like a rubber ball back into the positive realm? Or does it go below zero, with unmarried couples divorcing one another – just in case?

Second, this chart is based on a tiny number of data points – a mere 25 year sliver of the millennia-long history of divorce. If you go back a mere century and a half – see the chart below, taken from a paper you can find here — you’ll see that the marriage rate doesn’t conform to any neat mathematical formula; it jumps up and down, affected not only by slow-moving cultural changes but by events in the real world – look at the gigantic spike in marriage after World War II.

But the main issue here is that there is simply no way you can come up with a neat equation to predict the future of marriage because THE WORLD DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY. History isn’t math. It cannot be predicted in advance, and any attempt to do so — especially one based on a tiny sliver of data — is doomed to failure. (Well, certain aspects of reality can be predicted — like when Halley’s comet will next return (assuming it’s not eaten by a giant space monster we haven’t discovered yet). Orbits can be calculated with mathematical precision; social trends cannot.)

To illustrate the dangers of extrapolation, let’s consider the little chart below, prepared by a helpful assistant (who happens to have access to a scanner). The chart provides some interesting data on the age of a hypothetical cat named “Fluffy” and her projected life expectancy. As you can see, Fluffy was hypothetically born in 2001, making her ten years old today, with her age increasing by one every year. (Just pretend that the numbers line up properly; my assistant, despite her many other charms, is not big on precision, and may have been drunk when she prepared this chart.) Based on this data (which show Fluffy’s age increasing by one every year), we could project that by the time the next century rolls around our dear little cat will be 99 years old.

If projecting the future were as easy as drawing little lines on graphs, the world would be a much simpler, and much less interesting, place to live. Most of us realize this. MRAs and MGTOWers, not so much.

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PosterformerlyknownasElizabeth
PosterformerlyknownasElizabeth
13 years ago

*blinks at Ami and is puzzled by the concept of Asian men being submissive/subservient* Seriously, all the Asian guys I have known have been domineering asshats. Or maybe it is just Arizona.

ithiliana
13 years ago

Kave: blessings to you and your family.

Hope some nice meaty trolls stroll by for you to devour!

speedlines
13 years ago

Damn, Ami, you are good!

(who was that JAQ troll? It was quite some time ago, on the other blog.)

Pam
Pam
13 years ago

*blinks at Ami and is puzzled by the concept of Asian men being submissive/subservient* Seriously, all the Asian guys I have known have been domineering asshats. Or maybe it is just Arizona.

I think she’s offering herself up as the “sacrificial troll” in an effort to give Kave a target at which he can vent his spleen.

Pam
Pam
13 years ago

(who was that JAQ troll? It was quite some time ago, on the other blog.)

I think that was “vagrantsvoice”

Sarah
Sarah
13 years ago

oh, Kave! *hugs* I am so sorry! And I don’t mind you posting here sometimes to vent. I think this community is made better by supporting each other.

Uh, I can try being a troll, too, if you like…

Sarah
Sarah
13 years ago

What you don’t understand is that the STATE is trying to indoctrinate all of our children. And turn them gay! Women want this because they think little gay boys are adorable. And you all support this! Child Sodomy! As long as they’re using condoms they’re alright? Right? YOU SICK FUCKS!

Men = bad, women = good, lesbian = pie, genderqeer = AWESOME

Bee
Bee
13 years ago

I have been researching this site as well as MRM websites, and I must say that the MRM sites such as the Spearhead are much more reasonable and their commenters are much nicer also. BIGWALLOFTEXT. I am a class of advanced kindergarteners with behavior problems, and I am doing a research project that I am discussing amongst myself for important learning purposes, and you feminist is all poopyheads.

Spearhafoc
13 years ago

Needs more spelling and grammar errors.

I suggest:

What you dont understand is that the STATE is trying to indoctrinate all of our children. And turn them gay! Womenwant this because they think little gay boys are adorable. And you all support this! Child Sodomy! As long as their using condoms there alright? Right? YOU SICK FUCKS!

Men = bad, women = good, lesbian = pie, genderqeer = AWESOME

But otherwise, you have his voice right.

Sarah
Sarah
13 years ago

Hahah, spearboy, you think I care about your anti-gramar nanzi ways! I dont ! Your just correcting me because you cant forumale an argument against my ideas! Silly boy, go back to posting pretty pictures, that’s all you’re good for.

And why hasnt anyone asnwered my questions yet!?!

Men's Rights Activist Lieutenant
Men's Rights Activist Lieutenant
13 years ago

This is bullshit, why am I on moderation?

Sarah
Sarah
13 years ago

It’s because you have short fingers.

Kave
Kave
13 years ago

MRAL

You are on moderation because you are disposable. Want me to explain that?

Ami Angelwings
13 years ago

He’s on moderation because he’s a man, David. Why can’t you just admit that?

Sarah
Sarah
13 years ago

No, no, it’s totes the fingers, guys.

MRAL, you know I’m just teasing you, right? Learn to laugh with us! It’ll make you a happier person! And help you get laid!

Molly Ren
13 years ago

I prefer short, skinny, sarcastic men with wicked smiles. Bonus if they’re well-dressed and don’t mind sitting on my lap for makeouts.

Why don’t they make more of those?

Men's Rights Activist Lieutenant
Men's Rights Activist Lieutenant
13 years ago

Yes Kave, please explain that.

Molly Ren
13 years ago

It’s a feminist plot, MRAL.

Victoria von Syrus
Victoria von Syrus
13 years ago

It’s because you’re a petty person, MRAL, and have no capacity to empathize with others or admit that, gee, maybe someone’s beloved daughter having to face cancer is worse than having short fingers and a personality so odious to women that none of them want to sleep with you.

Men's Rights Activist Lieutenant
Men's Rights Activist Lieutenant
13 years ago

I never said that, but people are making snide remarks about me and I won’t let that go unchallenged.

Victoria von Syrus
Victoria von Syrus
13 years ago

@MRAL: The only reason you can say that is because David deleted your comment, wherein you said something along the lines of “My problems aren’t petty.”

Your problems ARE petty, because you are a petty person and incapable of realizing that sometimes, it’s best to shut the fuck up and let other people talk about what’s going on in THEIR lives, and that saying “Wow, Kave [or whoever], that’s rough. I really hope everything works out,” isn’t going to be some cataclysmic event that makes your balls fall off.

But, no. It’s all about you. You have succeeded in turning nearly every thread in which you appear into the MRAL Pity Party Hour, where many of the commenters here try to rally around and give support and advice. And what do we get? To paraphrase you, you spit on all of us. You’re obsessed with your height and eye and short fingers, and are convinced that no one can ever suffer as much as you have, ever. The discrimination that other people suffer is never as bad as what you perceive as has happened to you, personally. Other people might be denied jobs based on the color of their skin, or housing because of their sexuality, or ignored because of their gender… but the realities of those people is somehow never as bad as the fact that you can’t find a woman with enough internalized self-hatred to think that fucking you is a good idea.

You’re nothing more than a troll. And I don’t mean that in the ‘stir shit up on the Internet’ kind of way, though you’re that, too. I mean the ugly, hateful, destructive kind of troll. And by ugly, I mean your fucking personality. I don’t give a shit about what my friends look like (some of them are even FAT), and am pretty forgiving on what my lovers look like, but I have way too much self-respect to hang out with, much less fuck, someone with as repulsive a personality as you have.

So, yeah, let this “go unchallenged.” I stand by every fucking thing I just said, and will only recant when you can demonstrate some basic human empathy.

I, personally, am done with trying to offer you advice on your personal problems. I refuse to engage with you any further about your physical flaws, your sexless life or any perceived personal unfairness in your own life. And I really hope everyone else here starts doing the same thing.

Grow the fuck up.

ClioPersephone
ClioPersephone
13 years ago

@Victoria von Syrus: Hear, hear! *applause*

dgz3120
dgz3120
13 years ago

As well the divorce rate in by fare its largest down trend since the chart began and challenging is lower trend line, the marriage rate has drawn a head and shoulders and breached previous levels of support.

Crass
Crass
13 years ago

(((interweb hugs))) to Kave. I can’t even imagine my family being in your situation.

In other news:

NWOSlave is so impenetrably stupid he gives me a headache. How do you all put up with him?