As we’ve seen again and again on this blog, misogynists love to talk about how much better men are than women when it comes to things like math, logic, and scientific thinking generally. Unfortunately, their posts and comments online – filled with breathtaking failures of logic, absurd unsourced assertions and magical thinking — do not seem to bear out this hypothesis. I would compare the scientific thinking of most manosphere misogynists with that of the creationists, but frankly that would be insulting to creationists.
A case in point: a graph – provenance unknown – posted in a recent MGTOWforums discussion of marriage. The standard line amongst the lady haters is that marriage is on the way out , because men are “waking up” to the evils of marriage in an allegedly feminist state and deciding to, well, go their own way. The reality: while the marriage rate has been falling fairly steadily for the last quarter-century or so, for a variety of reasons, most people do marry at some point in their lives; it would be silly to assume that a trend over the course of several decades heralds the death of a social institution that has lasted (and has had many previous ups and downs) for millennia.
Of course, that’s not the way the MGTOWers in question see it. Their proof that marriage is doomed – doomed, I say – lies in this little graph which charts with mathematical precision the exact date range within which marriage will vanish forever from this good earth:
Now, there are many problems with this little graph. For one thing, what happens AFTER the projected marriage rate goes to zero? Does the marriage rate bounce like a rubber ball back into the positive realm? Or does it go below zero, with unmarried couples divorcing one another – just in case?
Second, this chart is based on a tiny number of data points – a mere 25 year sliver of the millennia-long history of divorce. If you go back a mere century and a half – see the chart below, taken from a paper you can find here — you’ll see that the marriage rate doesn’t conform to any neat mathematical formula; it jumps up and down, affected not only by slow-moving cultural changes but by events in the real world – look at the gigantic spike in marriage after World War II.
But the main issue here is that there is simply no way you can come up with a neat equation to predict the future of marriage because THE WORLD DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY. History isn’t math. It cannot be predicted in advance, and any attempt to do so — especially one based on a tiny sliver of data — is doomed to failure. (Well, certain aspects of reality can be predicted — like when Halley’s comet will next return (assuming it’s not eaten by a giant space monster we haven’t discovered yet). Orbits can be calculated with mathematical precision; social trends cannot.)
To illustrate the dangers of extrapolation, let’s consider the little chart below, prepared by a helpful assistant (who happens to have access to a scanner). The chart provides some interesting data on the age of a hypothetical cat named “Fluffy” and her projected life expectancy. As you can see, Fluffy was hypothetically born in 2001, making her ten years old today, with her age increasing by one every year. (Just pretend that the numbers line up properly; my assistant, despite her many other charms, is not big on precision, and may have been drunk when she prepared this chart.) Based on this data (which show Fluffy’s age increasing by one every year), we could project that by the time the next century rolls around our dear little cat will be 99 years old.
If projecting the future were as easy as drawing little lines on graphs, the world would be a much simpler, and much less interesting, place to live. Most of us realize this. MRAs and MGTOWers, not so much.
One of the worst things is no one lets you talk about it. Losing a child is one of the worst things we can think about. “How you doing Kave?” “Not bad but my daughter might die of cancer.” Talk about a conversation stopper. It’s not even that we are normally in complete denial if we weren’t we would have no friends.
That happened to my best friends mother. She was the buyer for a major book retailer, sharp as a tack . She had a major stroke which has left her still someone who can answer 3/4’s of the questions on Jeopardy but not quite the same. Her friends pretty much dumped her after the initial first visit to the hospital.
I really can’t understand the way the rest of the family is dealing with it. Her sister: that sucks. Her brothers, you went to the doctors today?
The wife called me after the doctors appointment: It’s what we expected no big deal, she commented that her oncologist said she should have been a surgeon, kid was able to point out every lump in her neck for the doctor.
My wife is a true humanist. Although she doesn’t believe in a higher power she believes in some sort of karma in a way, at least she’s always acted like she did. I know advice would be online support groups for parents going through the same thing. We’ve look at them and frankly if I see one more rainbow bridge for dead pets I may…. I”m giving myself a self pity day and hoping the board members don’t read my posts in detail. My daughter is hopefully here for many years and I wish I had a way to let my wife allow herself to be sad.
praying for you.
Kave-hugs and I hope and pray for all the best for your family.
Kave – I’m so sorry to hear this, and I’m afraid I did read all your posts in detail and they just about broke my heart. I hope your family gets through this and I wish the best for your daughter. She sounds like a wonderfully strong and brave young woman.
Kave, I’m glad you feel you can vent here. I’ve lost family members to cancer, and it really does help to have someplace you can just say whatever you want without having it affect the people you’re trying to support and be strong for. So please continue as long as you feel it’s helping you deal with the anger/fear/frustration/pain.
Kave, I don’t know what to say (I’m really not good at this), except to express my sympathies and admiration to you and your family.
@Kave I’m so so sorry 🙁 *offers you great big hugs* All my thoughts and prayers to you, your wife and your amazing daughter
That’s terrible, Kave! I hope your daughter comes through this, and best wishes to you and your whole family.
MRAL, that’s really not appropriate here. I’ve deleted that comment. If you don’t understand why I felt it was inappropriate, email me.
I’ve deleted/edited a couple of responses to the comment as well. We’re moving on.
Kave, thanks for putting a lot of petty things we complain about into perspective.
I love your daughter’s sense of humor.
Let’s hope for the best and that things can be turned around again.
Thank you all.
I need a troll. Everyone of course has sides to them, one side of me grew up very privileged in a Ridley College way that leads me to come off as quite conservative.
However my wife’s favorite uncle is also a very privileged leather daddy, I’m far from naive and socially very liberal. Actually maybe my family and the people I know are really the Rothchild’s who are prompting and funding this whole gay agenda that nwo is so worried about. In fact we have good friends who are a threesome not a twosome.
I’m sure you all won’t mind but for the next little while I’m going to have a bit of a gutter mouth. The 6.2 in height white alpha male needs to be angry at someone and pathetic man/boys are a good target.
David
Want to do something for me? Post something other then cute kitten videos today. They are cute but I really can’t find reason to swear at them.
I can be a troll! 😀 RAWR! As the MRA movement gains ground on the internet rape rates go down! Coincidence? I think NOT! At this rate, rape is gonna be gone in no time, what are feminists whining about!?
I have other flavours! If you look at the trend of % of trans ppl in society going up over the years, you’ll see the % of cis ppl must be going down! At this rate we’lll be at 0% and all forced to transition or be killed and harvested for organs by those patriarchy loving trans women and their traitorous fun fem allies!!!!
The Canucks won the first series of their playoff run 4-3 in 7 games, then 4-2 in 6 games, and then 4-1 in 5 games, which means in the Final they should win the series over the bruins 4-0! SWEEEEPPPP!!!!! You can book it, you can’t deny trends!
Hmmm Kave… throw me some topics that get you angry! Also how far I can go w/ them… I can do this *grits teeth* >:3
@Kave I dun mean to be flip about you needing something to let your anger out on : But there aren’t any trolls or nething around atm : And I can be pretty obnoxious and annoying.
Ami, getting mad at you when you’re like this is like getting mad at the kitten that’s hunting your foot.
I can be pretty obnoxious when I pretend to be a troll tho
http://ami-rants.blogspot.com/2007/05/why-im-anti-vegetarian.html
That was a satirical piece based on a “why I’m anti-feminist” thing… and I got a TON (in the comments and more from my email) if vegetarians threatening me w/ rape and death o_o;;
So I can do it >:3 But I’d be changing the way I write obv :]
*of >_>
Sorry Ami you are WAY too cute. Although I guess I could complain that because I’m old half the time I don’t know what you’re saying… but that would be a nag like my friggen 16 year old who I can park anywhere because all he does is text. Judging by him within two generations spoken language will be completely gone. Babies first words will be replaced by their first written omg on their cell phones. What’s the world coming to?
SIgned Grumpy old man
Hay it’s not like ur langwag didn’t change either! In fact teh way we rite is more effishent than u old ppl n ur stoopid roolz
ur 16 y/o is prolly txting abt u n wut a word nazi u r
this is just lik ww2 … soon ull be wanting to lock us all up in camps or smthng NAZI
Oh Kave, I’m so sorry.
DC Comics was sexist for crippling Barbara Gordon so she couldn’t be Batgirl anymore back in 1988!
DC Comics is ableist for making Barbara Gordon Batgirl again, taking her out of the wheelchair and out of her position as Oracle!
I believe both of those things, and I’m having trouble reconciling them!
…
Nah, I suck at trolling.
u r an old loser n u r prolly anti tech too bet u r getting ur 16 y/o that u think is so stoopid to rite this 4 u
whos teh stoopid 1 then huh