Dating by the Numbers: Why “hacking” OkCupid is a waste of everyone’s time
Is there no problem out there that can’t be solved by SCIENCE? Apparently not. Indeed, it has recently come to my attention that one heroic nerdy dude actually used MATH to get a girlfriend. No really, an actual girlfriend. As in, a living human female that he’s seen naked. (We can only presume.)
Wired magazine found the story so astonishing that they devoted an entire 3000 word feature to it.
The piece tells the tale of Chris McKinlay, then a grad student in mathematics at UCLA, who went searching for love on OKCupid, a dating site that uses daters’ answers to various questions, ranging from silly to profound, in order to calculate a “match score” that supposedly measures your compatibility with a potential date. But McKinlay wasn’t getting as many dates as he wanted.
So he decided to “reverse-engineer” OkCupid. As McKinlay — ever the romantic — explains on his own blog, he used his mathematical skillz to analyze the “high-dimensional user metadata in [the] putatively bipartite social graph structure [of] OkCupid,” and adjust his own profile accordingly.
Basically, he crunched a lot of numbers to figure out how the kinds of women he was most interested in — in particular one data “cluster dominated by women in their mid-twenties who looked like indie types, musicians and artists” — tended to answer questions. And then he fiddled with his own answers — and his choice of which questions to answer — so he would score higher match percentages with them. Ta da! Suddenly he had more matches.
He claims not to have answered any questions dishonestly, but as Wired notes “he let his computer figure out how much importance to assign each question, using a machine-learning algorithm called adaptive boosting to derive the best weightings.”
It doesn’t take a math degree to figure out that fudging your answers so they’re more like those of the women you’re targeting will make it look like you’re more like them. You can pull this same trick in real life by pretending to agree with everything a person says.
But you don’t have to be a psychologist to see that doing this kind of defeats the purpose of OKCupid’s match algorithms in the first place. You’re creating the illusion of chemistry where there may be none. Essentially, you’re cheating, but in a really self-defeating way.
And by focusing so intently on statistically crunchable data, he also ignored a lot of the more intangible “data” that the profiles provide if you actually sit down to read them. The numbers don’t reveal anything about a person’s verbal charm, or their sense of humor. They don’t tell you about the interesting little details of the person’s life.
As Katie Heaney notes in a Buzzfeed piece on McKinlay’s strange quest:
[M]uch of the language used in the story reflects a weird mathematician-pickup artist-hybrid view of women as mere data points … often quite literally: McKinlay refers to identity markers like ethnicity and religious beliefs as “all that crap”; his “survey data” is organized into a “single, solid gob”; unforeseen traits like tattoos and dog ownership are called “latent variables.” By viewing himself as a developer, and the women on OkCupid as subjects to be organized and “mined,” McKinlay places himself in a perceived greater place of power. Women are accessories he’s entitled to. Pickup artists do this too, calling women “targets” and places where they live and hang out “marketplaces.” It’s a spectrum, to be sure, but McKinlay’s worldview and the PUA worldview are two stops along it. Both seem to regard women as abstract prizes for clever wordplay or, as it may be, skilled coding. Neither seems particularly aware of, or concerned with, what happens after simply getting a woman to say yes.
And that’s where McKinlay’s system seems to have fallen down entirely. Though Wired is eager to present his “hacking” as a great success, it took McKinlay more than 90 dates — 87 of them first dates with no followup — before he found his current girlfriend.
In other words, his wondrous system produced a metric shit-ton of “false matches” and wasted a lot of people’s time, including his own.
And in the end it wasn’t his data crunching that brought his girlfriend to his door; as Wired notes, she found him on OKCupid after doing a “search for 6-foot guys with blue eyes near UCLA.” Happily for him, McKinlay already matched her preferences in these areas. In addition to appreciating his height and eye color and location in physical space, she apparently was also charmed by his cynical approach to OkCupid dating, so maybe they are a match made in heaven, if not in his data crunching techniques.
While McKinlay was going on first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date after first date, people I know have found wonderfully compatible matches — and long-term relationships — through OkCupid without having to date dozens of duds along the way.
How? Partly because OkCupid’s match algorithms led them to some interesting candidates. But mainly because they read profiles carefully and looked for compatibility in the words, not the numbers.
Posted on February 7, 2014, in okcupid, PUA and tagged okcupid. Bookmark the permalink. 728 Comments.









Wait, Diogenes The Cynic is back? I thought he left ages ago. I’m so surprised.
Hey, Diogenes, were you the dude who said ‘oral is impossible on a woman who doesn’t trim’?
I picked up the capitalizing WHOLE WORDS thing waaaay back in the days of AOL being an ISP. And still do it when I’m feeling lazy (what, italics requires lots of buttons on the iPad!)
And shit, all this time I’ve been calling you kitteh when it should be kittehs. I’ll retrain my brain to add the s!
Hey Diogenes, you see that your beloved manuscript may be *gasp* plants? Just not European ones.
Kitteh or kittehs is fine, Argenti. Kitteh makes more sense when you think about it – kitteh serf.
I like the all cap words thing for emphasis when italics or bold don’t really cut it, and capitalised first letters for particular things (usually snarky), but not random caps that make it look like someone thinks nouns take capitals in English. It just looks like the sort of poor writing skills one sees in MRAs so often.
I’m fine with all caps as long as it’s not overused, it’s when the first letter only is capitalized that it gets annoying because I keep wanting to read it as the beginning of a new sentence, which doesn’t work.
RE: buttboy69
No, I’m just not really interested in having a discussion in this sort of atmosphere.
Then just LEAVE. Nobody is stopping you. The door is a click away! Discussion ended! You have the power, buttboy! I BELIEVE IN YOU.
RE: Diogenes
Between age discrepancies, attractiveness, homosexuality, and stuff, at different ages men and women will have different levels of success dating.
It’s true! *maniacal laughter* Me and my homosexual brethren are taking up all the good men, and soon, the women of the world will have to stop hypergamy and devolve to lesbianism! Mwahahahaha! *thunderstrike*
You’re right, as long as you ignore age cohorts.
…you realize how gross that sounds, right?
RE: CassandraSays
Oh, cool. I was all, why are you suddenly a random green squiggle?
Kittehs stole my icon! *shakes cane at Kittehs*
@LBT
It’s how people become gay. Truefacts.
Kitteh — okay, I just know how annoying it can be to have ones nym shortened in a way one doesn’t like *is still not AA*
RE: Marie
Really? I joined up for the free toaster and dental.
@LBT
Ooh, toasters, shiny.
(dentists are still evil.)
@kitteh, just wondering, why is there the serf part? For some reason when I first read it, I thought of surf, like kitties surfing.
RE: auggziliary
Kittehs’ old name was “The Kittehs Unpaid Help,” which I guess she decided was too long one day, and ‘unpaid help’ could be easily shortened to ‘serf.’ Ergo: Kittehserf!
RE: Marie
It’s true! The Homosexuality Recruitment Office gives them out by the truckload! I’m saddened that the Lesbian Recruitment Office doesn’t!
Regarding Diogenes’s claim that men HAVE TO date outside their age range…no, they WANT TO. Have a graph — http://cdn.okcimg.com/blog/older_lover/Desirability.png
Up the right side is what percent of people would date someone of that age, organized by gender. The bottom is the age of the person in question. So, as is readily apparently, there isn’t that much of an age gap. And a good bit of it is because of this…
Ages men are willing to date — http://cdn.okcimg.com/blog/older_lover/Male-Match-Prefs.png
Age women are willing to date — http://cdn.okcimg.com/blog/older_lover/Female-Match-Prefs.png
So if men can’t find women their own age, the problem just might be that they aren’t looking! Or, hey, maybe men tend to like slightly younger women and women tend to like slightly older men, so those couples are more common. Has to be some external force though, no way that’s just how personal interests pan out.
@LBT
::cue eternal tears of lesbian sadness::
@argenti
I am so skeeved out that 18 starts at ‘above average’ desirability for women :/
Ew, the graph for the guys. Not that I didn’t know that a substantial number are actively looking for women young enough to be their daughters, but seeing it in graph form is not a happy-making thing.
Shorter buttboy: “WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!”
::clings to Mr K:: YOU CAN’T HAVE HIM HE’S MINE!!!!eleventy!
::shakes cane back::
Hey, we could have a virtual cane battle! That’d be almost as good as medieval foot wrestling. *
Actually mildlymagnificent gets the credit for “kittehserf” – she called me that one day back when I was The Kittehs’ Unpaid Help. I cacked myself laughing at it and yeah, it’s much less unwieldy. :)
* was really a thing
I worked out why MRAs do it… it was common in 17th and 18th century English, and that’s where they get a lot of their ideas from.
RE: Kittehs
Nope, sorry, you have to return your king. I’m collecting dead noncorporeal bi guys, you know.
CANE BATTLE! EN GUARDE!
You’ve already got one, Rogan! Don’t be greedy!
… I could ask if stepson and stepson-in-law want to be in your collection. I warn you though, Mac and Philippe would probably disappear into Wardrobe Land* for a few centuries.
Heheh I’ve been thinking how cool it’d be to have a sword cane. Could make folding it up a bit tricky, though.
I’m seeing us having a cane battle like the fight scene in Up:
Ha, these guys are behind the times for then! :P
*no I am not talking Narnia
RE: Kittehs
*laughs* Yes, basically, it would probably go like that.
Count yourself lucky I don’t have dentures!
I have a retainer! That’s close enough.
LOL!
Cassandra — be glad I didn’t post the graphs of who they actually message, it’s even worse. Here’s the citation for those graphs, if you want to be horrified — http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/the-case-for-an-older-woman/
That distribution does explain why the guys are constantly whining about not getting any responses. If you spend all your time messaging 18 and 19 olds, many of whom have probably set their profiles to tell you not to, then of course you’re going to be ignored.
Eewwww, Argenti. And let’s just wait for some pain in the ass to come up and say that this is because men are better aged or some such bullshit.
Guys, you can’t have it both ways. You can’t claim that men are more attractive as they age and then complain that young men aren’t getting the sex they deserve.
Um, how to put this kindly? I’m attracted to both men and women, and in my experience older women are usually much more attractive than their male peers, probably because they tend to make more of an effort.
I think what’s most telling there is looking at age cross sections of the messages sent:
25 year old men are very frequently messaging 18 year olds, and sometimes messaging 30 year olds. The women? Sometimes messaging 20 year olds and sometimes messaging 35 year olds.
35 year old men? Still frequently messaging those 18 year olds (17 fucking years younger, and looking for guys under 24), barely messaging women over 40 (5 years older, but infrequent messages). The women? Almost all messages are to men 25-45 — a decade of in both directions.
45? Yikes guys, lay off, she’s *20*! But hey, they’re messaging women 7 years older than them now (52). The women? 28~54 year old men are getting most of their messages. And ok, that’s 17 years younger, which is a bit skeevy. But nearly as skeevy as a 45 year old man messaging lots of women too young to legally drink!
And where the most messages go? Women go from messaging guys a few years older to a few years younger at around 30, men go from messaging women their age to younger (and MUCH) younger at around 25, by 35 they have no strong concentration of messages, but the greenish yellow is nowhere hear their age. Women it spreads out but the concentration of messages never seems to stray far from their own age, other than that women under 25 want a guy a few years older.
But the age disparity that’s got Diogenes cranky is women’s fault somehow.
It’s not women’s fault that so many men have pedo tendencies, dude.
(You know that if the system let some of these guys message 15 year olds they would.)
I find I prefer older people of whatever sex, aesthetically, as I age – that is, people roughtly within a decade of my age, preferably on the older rather than younger side. I don’t care for looking at twenty-somethings at all.
Oh yeah, I’m sure the only reason the men have a lower age limit of 18 is because you have to be an adult to join. Meanwhile those 18 year olds are rarely messaging guys over 28, and most of their messages are *gasp* going to guys who’re 21~ (dual theory, girls mature faster so 18 year old guys are still annoying douches, 21 year old BFs can buy booze)
My preferences have shifted with my own age too. It’s rare now that anyone in their twenties catches my eye, much less holds my interest for very long. I have to admit that I wouldn’t set my preferences at more than 5 years older, though, at least not for men, if I was single now. I feel like there’s a weird-ass gap between me and men a decade older that’s less of an issue with women the same age. What I was saying above again – at least where I live, women in the 40-60 range are just much more stylish and well put together than the men the same age, on average.
The ten-year gap for me is prolly because it’s just an aesthetic thing, I guess. I wouldn’t want a relationship with a guy of sixty, that’s for sure.
Four hundred, now, that’s a different matter. ;)
It’s actually much more comfortable seeing Mr K looking fiftyish, now, an age he never reached earthside. I wouldn’t like being a decade or more older than him, even though he did look older than his years then.
I actually have a really weird feeling.
See, we have a younger brother. Young, athletic, blond, you know, very much the all-American boy.
And I swear to god, so many actors in gay porn look in his age range and general build and coloring. INSTA-BUZZKILL. Do not want to be thinking about my brother when porn is on.
As a result, I swear, it’s not that I like older guys generally, it’s just that all the young white remind me of my goddamn little brother! D8 Even though he’s twenty-four now, I keep wanting to say, “WHY AREN’T YOU IN SCHOOL YOUNG MAN.” I am the worst.
Also, I’m high-mileage and special needs. I don’t think I’d have the patience for someone who didn’t have at least a similar amount of life experience, regardless of their age. (Because let’s face it, some people get hit with the Life Stick harder than others.)
Though as an added note, I swore after the Raping Year never to get involved with someone significantly older than me again, since that was part of our rapist’s method of control. (He was twenty; we were sixteen. And we were the ADULT of that relationship.) Then I met my husband who’s eight years older. Oops.
Though to be fair, it’s not the years that matter so much as how you wield them. Hubby has never used his age as a method of power over me.
LBT — I hear you about that Life Stick. My college dating attempts — “WHOO PARTY!!” “I have to work, there’s this thing called rent”…it’s part of why I stayed with rapist ex #2 as long as I did, even getting about 6 hours sleep a night, I was lucky to squeeze in 20 hours to myself in a week (and my hair takes nearly an hour to wash!). Dating just ain’t possible on that schedule and I’m not going to waste my precious free time on boring dates!
Then there’s my brother, who I constantly have to remind myself is, uh, shit, he’ll be 26 his year. Me at 26? See above. Him at 26? Never moved out, video games, the occasional construction gig for a few weeks at a time. It’s not even a case of “he’ll always be a kid to me” cuz I wasn’t living here when he hit 21 (he was, uh, 16 when I moved out), but I just cannot wrap my head around him being older than 21~
And then there’s, say, Ally. Where it’s like…you’re how young?! You act so much older!
——
Experiment completed — OKC shows the same numbers to both sides of the match numbers.
I had a partner who was 11 years older than me, which put him into the middle of the baby boomer generation. I felt like the hired help (including not feeling welcome in male after-dinner conversations). Never again. Also, he was the arsehole who raped me.
Holy crap Argenti, I thought you were like 22. Because you sound young and cool. Now you sound older and cool.
I’m old :(
Every guy my parents’ age who was all “age is just a number, baby” to me when I was online dating when I was 20 was actually saying “I think your clearly-stated limits are negotiable when they stand in between me and what I want to do to you.” Wow, sexy.
“Yes, and your number is really big! I’m just a girl so big numbers scare me, tee hee!”
Thinking back to all the young women I’ve known over the years, only 2 have been willing to date men more than 10 years older than them. If only those guys could hear the way women talk among ourselves after they walk away.
I was always like “how many 50 year old women are you messaging, if age is just a number? ‘Baby?'”
Of course it is kind of weird to talk about this because my boyfriend actually is substantially older than me. Not as old as the OkCreepers, but… yeah. Sometimes I wonder if it’s hypocritical to point out how creepy that kind of behaviour is.
I had one friends-with-benefits in my mid-to-late 20s who was 13 years older than me, but really looked after himself, was (IMO) extremely good looking, an attentive lover, and was a bunch of fun to go out with – he partied harder than me. He was also really intelligent, and treated me like I had brains. He was a rock when my father died when I was in my late 20s, too. I managed to contact him again a couple of years ago after we lost touch for about 10 years – we now live in different countries.
So not all older guys are awful. But with him, I had a huge crush on him from when I first met him, and I’d been talking to him on the phone and via computer bulletin boards (ha, anyone else remember Searchlight boards?) before we met. And we had a bunch of mutual friends and acquaintances, so probably not the normal May-September hook-up.
But a 25-year-old to 38-year-old hook-up doesn’t seem as skeevy as a 25-year-old to 50-year-old hookup. But that said, he was older than the defacto I had later. But he acted/thought much younger.
I dunno if I’m making any sense.
It definitely gets skeevier the bigger the gap is, and the younger the youngest person involved is. So 25 year old and 35 year old is probably fine, but a 19 year old with a 40 year old is getting pretty sketchy, and a 50 year old hitting on a 20 year old raises all kinds of alarm bells. There are always exceptions where it’s fine, but as a general trend it’s creepy.
I guess my thoughts are: if you find a mutual attraction with someone older than yourself, particularly if you are a woman and they are a man, ask yourself “are they interested in me in whole or in part because of my age?” And if you think the answer is yes, run like hell. And if you think the answer is no, there will still be all sorts of situations in which they will have more experience, and they will almost definitely control more wealth than you, and their opinions will carry more weight with other people (again, especially if you’re a woman and they’re a man), which gives them a lot of power. They can wield that power unintentionally too, even if they’re a good person. So it’s complicated and risky regardless.
I also tend to feel differently about it if the younger person was the one doing the pursuing, and if there’s no institutional power imbalance (one person is the other’s superior at work, older person has home and car and younger person is still in school, and so on).
Sorry, no, I think that’s my niche. Argenti is the older and cooler statistics person.
I find that I tend to have the same attitudes to same-sex couples I know as I do for the hetero. So the scenario that cassandra mentions in the third comment back gives me the same feelings for both same-sex and opposite-sex partnerships/relationships. That said, the biggest age differentials I have encountered have been in opposite-sex relationships. YMMV.
@Fibinachi, and you have the G&S niche filled too. :)
Kiwi girl, I’m older’n you!
Heh – reminds me of one funny birthday/works lunch way back in the day. Turned out I was a few weeks older than birthday boy – we’d both assumed he was older – and we yelled the “I’m older than you!” “You’re older than me!” thing simultaneously, like we were 9 rather than 29.
Those guys were fun to work with. :)
LOL it’s great to have work colleagues.My boss is about 6 months older than me, so I hope we’re both still there when 50 rolls around in a couple of years. Because that is 6 months of me teasing him *mercilessly*. Not that I think 50’s old, but because I think he’s not looking forward to it.
*great to have great work colleagues
I am laughing like Woody Woodpecker at the merciless teasing idea. It would have been just the same if I was working with those guys last year!
How does it happen that this wonderful OKCupid algorithm which is supposed to find a good match for everyone (and if doesn’t it meens a person doesn’t deserve a partner) keeps you flooded with all kinds of creeps and stalkers?
Because it’s not due to the algorithm – the algorithm doesn’t prevent a person from being contacted by someone who is a low match. Nor does the algorithm force people to be accurate in their answers/auto-correct lies.
Logic, how does it work again?
Human agency, how does it work again?
OKCupid is international, and in most other countries the drinking age is 18. You americans are the weirdos. I know that americans are the majority, but people outside the US can’t be insignificant.
Kim — fair enough. Though I ran it by my mother and she was less polite than I was about how guys under 21 act (and being fairly young, I’m gonna put the idiot drop off point a few years older than that!)
Kiwi Girl — I’ll be 29 this summer. But thank you, and Fibi, I’m apparently cool! ^.^
I’m also not sleeping, despite sleeping pill and a half (aka 75% of the initial dose that turned me into a zombie so we halved it…which only sometimes works). Bad Brain!
Oh and sorting by match percent I have to scroll through dozens of profiles to hit below 90%, and I’m really not some amazing catch or anything! Who’s visited my profile though? The VAST majority have match ratings under 70%, some as low as 20%. (Note, if yours is <50% and your message is "wassup?" the answer is "the delete button")
RE: Argenti
Yup. While my life since my creation seems to be either crisis, or RECOVERING from crisis. The closest thing to “restful days” I had was that year in New Zealand, where I was mostly doing menial work, moving constantly (usually at least once a month), and still recovering from rape trauma. To me, that was blissfully low-impact. The Chinese curse “may you live in interesting times,” seems to have been made with me in mind.
RE: Viscaria
Sometimes I wonder if it’s hypocritical to point out how creepy that kind of behaviour is.
Again, it’s not the age, but how you use it. My hubby’s significantly older than me too, but he always respected my boundaries and never treated me like a stupid child or hired help. Of course, our situation was pretty unusual already, and we met under circumstances where I had power over HIM. So you know.
Also, he NEVER said age was just a number. He was really conflicted about it, especially since I was nineteen and he was twenty-seven at the start. But we actually TALKED about it, and worked on it. Shock!
RE: maturation rate
This is always weird to me, because our younger brother seemed to grow up fairly slowly, while I feel like I just skipped adolescence. I never felt like I WASN’T an adult, probably because of the whole “constant crisis” shit I mentioned above, so I can’t understand the whole manchild phenomenon. I’m always like, “Weren’t you living in constant rapey circumstances? Or fearing complete destitution or familial abandonment? HOW DO YOU LIVE LIKE THAT?” It’s like I forget that that ISN’T normal life.
Not gonna lie, means I have a lot less sympathy for folks whose biggest problem is vague existential discontent because they haven’t experienced much challenge in their lives.
Damn straight. I look at what people on manboobz have experienced and think how fucking lucky I’ve been. Yeah, a quiet life with few challenges, but that isn’t actually something to complain about!
So important. Same with us.
Spouse is older than I as well but the difference is when we met we both were independent adults.who had our own lives, desires and accomplishments. Trying to attached yourself to someone who has barely started their life because they are less likely to know you’re being an ass is just creepy on so many levels.
@viscaria
I don’t think it’s hypocritical. There’s a difference between (however you guys met) where you seem like your okay with him being x years older and guys who message much younger women despite the women saying they want to date people in a different age range. One is just two people dating, the other the older men are directly ignoring what women already said they wanted.
@cassandra
I don’t know, I think 19 w/ 40 is already raising alarm bells. or 19 with 30. I’m 19, and I don’t think I know myself well to be dating someone over 25 (preferably under 22) because of how people grow up. I mean, I know people mature at faster/slower rates, but it just seems like theirs too much a difference in life experience. If that makes sense?
@kim
Majority in okcupid? on manboobz? Sorry, I just don’t understand.
And hey, I’d love the drinking age to be lower here :D
I’m not sure what the difference is between saying something is getting sketchy and saying it should potentially raise alarm bells?
@Cassandra
Um, me neither :;blush:: I just wondered if you meant something different, since they were phrased differently, but maybe you were just avoiding awkward word repetition? Idk, feel free to straighten me out on this one, cuz I’m clearly confused.
What I was trying to get at is just that the more the gap increases, the sketchier it gets, and the more it’s reasonable for people to side-eye the older person.
@cassandra
Yeah, that makes sense. I think I get what you’re saying now. Sorry for the confusion.
NP!