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The “Nice Guy” Who Raped and Strangled a Young Irish Woman

Adrian Ernest Bayley: Rapist, Strangler, Self-proclaimed Nice Guy

Adrian Ernest Bayley: Rapist, Strangler, Self-proclaimed Nice Guy

One reason so-called Nice Guys ™ seem so creepy to so many people is that it’s easy to see the rage and the bitterness and the weird sort of self-hating entitlement that is so often lurking underneath – and sometimes not that far underneath – the “nice guy” exterior.

Consider the gutwrenching case of Jill Meagher, an Irish woman who was raped and murdered in a suburb of Melbourne Australia last September by a man who accosted her on the street as she was walking home from a bar. A man who later told police that he had only approached her in the first place because he was “trying to be nice.”

In a lengthy interview with police, in which he confessed to raping and strangling Meagher, Adrian Ernest Bayley explained that he had only approached Meagher because she “looked distraught” and he thought he could “help.” And he only became angry at her when she rebuffed his kind offers.

“It wasn’t really my intention to hurt her, you know that?” he told police.

I spoke to her, you know and said, look, I’ll just – I’ll – I’ll help you, you know. … She flipped me off and that made me angry, because I was trying to do a nice thing. You know that? …

I was just – I was trying to be nice and – she kept going from being nice to nasty, to nice, to – you know what I mean?

Earlier in the evening, Bayley had reportedly argued with his girlfriend about his “jealousy and possessiveness issues.” The girlfriend returned home, where she reportedly told her landlady that she was “hiding from Adrian.”

The newspaper The Australian paints a picture of a man with rage issues and very little self-awareness.

Mr Bayley was working for a drainage company until his arrest six days after Meagher went missing. The workmate he had been drinking with that night told police Mr Bayley would become “angry and aggressive” after fighting with his girlfriend.

“He had a very short fuse and didn’t like to be told he was in the wrong,” he said. “In the times that I worked with Adrian, he was often talking about women. He would say he couldn’t understand how men could hurt women or be abusive towards women.”

None of this is to say that all Nice Guys ™ are harboring killers inside of them, or anything even remotely like that. But those who most loudly proclaim their “niceness” often turn out to be pretty awful, in part because they think that women owe them something for being so insistently “nice.”

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Posted on March 14, 2013, in irony alert, men who should not ever be with women ever, misogyny, nice guys, rape, white knights and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. 407 Comments.

  1. Aww, obvious thing is not obvious?

    Here, let me make it simple.

    You said: “1. You certainly could find a correlation between the introduction of the registry and decrease in sex crimes. Proving a causal relationship might be difficult, though.”

    I went and found the statistics, from the US, on rates of rape, and other violent crimes, charted them, put in a marker for when Megan’s law was introduced, and presented said chart. With me still?

    Now, if you’ll load that chart, you’ll quite plainly see that all violent crime has been on the decrease since before Megan’s law was introduced. Obvious thing is obvious.

    As for sentencing, you said:

    “In the UK in >80% of the cases prison sentence is >5 years, average sentence is ~8 years (the 17% of cases with “indeterminate sentences” for public protection excluded). So while these sentences may be low, I don’t think they are laughable.”

    “US sentencing statistics are problematic because most don’t break down sexual offenses. Maybe you give me some evidence? (remember, I certainly agree that there are lot of cases where light sentences have been given, but we’re talking about the average sentence, which we can expect to be somewhere between 8 and 9 years, 50% of the time served).”

    The first quote includes nothing about how much of that ~8 years is actually served, but does directly say that this is the case in over 80% of cases (of convictions I presume?). Note that this leaves 20% of cases with lesser sentences, versus 30~40% of US rapists not going to jail at all. That aside, first quote says more than 5 years, which either means more than 5 years served, or you have serious issues in making yourself clear. Second quote implies that US sentences “can [be] expect[ed] to be” half of 8~9 years. Two seconds of math says that that’s 4~4.5 years.

    “While the average sentence of convicted rapists released from State prisons has remained stable at about 10 years, the average time served has increased from about 3 years to about 5 years; for those released after serving time for sexual assault, the sentence has been a stable 6 years, and the average time served grew about 6 months to just under 3 years.”

    As in, the time served for rape has recently reached (and slightly exceeded) your guess, but the average for sexual assault remains laughably low. (Well, unless you’re the victim, in which case it’s appalling, not laughable)

    As in, “now we’ve got an average of 5 years”? The “now” in there implies “we have recently started to have” correct? Because if you meant “we here in this thread”, well, nope, see previous sentence.

    And it’s Argenti Aertheri, it’s at the top of all my posts, copy and paste it if you must. Or just use Argenti. Whatever.

  2. @Jaro

    I’ll give you a hint…the only options aren’t prison and probation. :(

  3. Oh and Jaro? Just because Owly assumed me to be female doesn’t mean I am, gender neutral pronouns please — ze/zir.

    And pro-tip, you should assume that if Owly thinks something, the opposite is true. If he said the sky was blue I’d have to go look, he’s that incapable of not being made of shit. (He’s also horrendous at math, but that’s neither here nor there)

  4. Also, finding someone else’s error when they don’t show their work is way harder than just getting the right fucking answer in the first place. I want a fucking medal.

    (Argenti, this hopefully obviously applies to Jaro’s math problem – hey look! a pun – not your hard work, which was way more than a weighted average.)

  5. I’ll find you a nice shiny medal if you explain where your reference to probation came from. I’m not finding it, but I’m rather cranky at present (just wrote the not-an-ex a novella about my psych, cuz ze’s make a better one but went pharmacy instead…we met in a psych class, and there’s someone who can rival my math!)

    And yes, I show my work except when it seems so obvious that that’s pointless. Nice pun, it’s almost like it wrote itself :)

  6. *holds up hand proudly as one who knows I can’t do maths* :P

  7. @Argenti

    He declared himself right by taking a weighted average with the wrong nunbers.
    If 36% of convicted rapists get probabtion (0 years in jail or prison), then 64% get sentenced to something. He used the average of rapists sentenced to prison and got

    .64*14 + .36*0 ≈ 9

    Which would be okay if there weren’t other options in the not probation category that come in with way less than 14 years in prison. Like, for one example, jail.

    .

  8. Probabtion, autocorrect. WTF? Probabtion. Sheesh.

    *Probation

  9. Ah ok. And he completely ignored sexual assault stats. Which are, um, interesting, the definitions are all over the place, even in my citation. I mean, ranging from “carnal knowledge of a female” to the FBI definition – leaving everything else as sexual assault.

    Idk if it’s important here, but some states don’t actually have a crime called rape, they use degrees of sexual assault to get around, well, NY having to change their rape law to include anal rape, Steubenville bullshit about how that’s “fondling” or whatever the naïf said, etc.

  10. @The Kittehs’

    By excluding rapists sentenced to time jail (this is an US-only thing, I think? Apologies if I am explaining something you know), Jaro excluded any sentence of less than a year*. In addition, he left out rapists like the Steubenville rapists who were sentenced to a juvenile facility and are also likely to get shorter sentences.

    So, his number came out higher than reality.

    *I think it a year, but basically jails are short-term and prisons are long-term. Where you go depends on exactly what you did and your sentence.

  11. @Argenti

    Yeah, I’m not sure there isn’t another mistake, but I managed to recreate his thought process *holds out hand for medal* and yeah, if I thought he were smart enough, I’d assume that he rigged it on purpose to get the highest number possible. But no, he’s honest (although not showing your work looks like cheating, Jaro *teacher glare*), just dumb.

  12. Hmm, I think this medal, because it’s different and stylish — http://allstarawards.net/catalog/images/FM209.jpg

    And yes, show your work, or at least have it handy if requested.

  13. A few things (on US law):

    Felony conviction more or less means prison.
    Minors can only be sent to adult prisons (or jail for that matter) if being tried, or sentenced, as an adult (or probably if someone screws up or is an asshole, but it isn’t supposed to happen)
    Rape sentences can, in theory, be limited to a fine. Unlike drug charges there’s rarely (if ever) a mandatory minimum. And registry related things are always state specific, and often at judicial discretion.
    Rape rates in the 60s had to be higher than my chart because husbands where still entitled to sex, I probably should’ve attempted to account for that, but marital rape laws were implemented state by state, and it isn’t really relevant.

  14. @Argenti

    All of which makes the average prison sentence much harder to calculate unless we want to limit it to only adult offenders or only in one state or only cases where the average makes Jaro’s guesses right.

  15. *average sentence

    Prison just snuck in there…

  16. And I love my medal! Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! *jumps around with glee in my head, but in reality is getting tired*

  17. Some Gal — re: sentences — I’m bored, so I tracked down better numbers. PDF — http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/PSATSFV.PDF

    Forcible rape = 10 year sentence, 5.5~ served. So yep, longer than the 4~4.5 years I think he was implying for the UK.
    All other sexual assault? 6 year sentence, just under 3 years served.

    So yes, people do generally serve about half their sentence, but the difference between “forcible rape” and “sexual assault” is dramatic. And in this context, I’d bet money that forcible rape means “carnal knowledge of a woman forcibly and against her will”. Which makes statutory rape, abuse of power cases, rape of anyone not a woman, intoxicated/unconscious victim, victim otherwise unable to consent…all sexual assault.

    And no one here wants to know how withdrawal of consent is treated (let’s just say that most states haven’t addressed it)

  18. @Argenti

    But we are talking about the average of forcible rape and all other sexual assault, right? The original exchange:

    Marie:

    however, the punishments for rape are laughable, or would be if they weren’t happening in reality. For some crimes, I might agree. But rape, especially in america, where I live? No, just no.

    I think it is safe to assume Marie meant both categories.

    Jaro:

    In the UK in >80% of the cases prison sentence is >5 years, average sentence is ~8 years (the 17% of cases with “indeterminate sentences” for public protection excluded). So while these sentences may be low, I don’t think they are laughable.

    In the US, I would say, reg all sex offenses, prison sentences are rather inconsistent than light (e. g. state/federal disparity, effective life sentences given for non-contact sex offenses vs. sometimes light sentences for rapes).

    Jaro seemed to think Marie meant both and he makes the claim for “all sex offenses.”

    So wouldn’t we be talking about the average of all of them?

  19. It isn’t clear what he means with the UK numbers, though. I think only looking at “forcible rape” in the US, though, would be borderline (at best) goalpost moving. But then I’m not sure if the UK numbers are relevant at all. (They very likely might not be.)

    See, Jaro, SHOW YOUR WORK.

  20. Yeah I’d assume both, hence why I pointed out that his math is only correct for forcible rape (and even then we had to decipher it!)

    Marie probably meant all rape, some of which (most of which) is classified as sexual assault, and thus she probably intended to include both categories.

    Ah, side note. Marie and Jaro, please correct me if my guesses at your pronouns are incorrect (and my apologies if they are).

    Let me see if I can track down, um…idk how you’d weigh that actually…oh this is going to be fun. When I get back to my mac I’ll track down rates on violent crime that have both forcible rape and sexual assault (the data for the chart lumps them), figure out what percent of violent crime they both are (if needed), and figure out a ratio of forcible rape versus sexual assault that can be used for a weighed average of sentences.

    Until then I’ll try to refrain from ripping my ears off while sitting between two out of sync ticking clocks.

  21. Dandy, my chart doesn’t lump them, it includes only forcible rape. I am beginning to hate this data.

  22. @Argenti
    :( Good luck? (On managing the clocks and the bad data.)

    I think I should probably get to bed. *Yawn* Good night!

  23. Niters! I should make lunch and head off too.

  24. I take it back, I just needed to look harder. http://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/soo.pdf

    Rough guess here, but that chart of offenders serving rape versus sexual assault sentences looks like 3:5 — 37.5% serving rape sentences, 62.5% serving sexual assault sentences.

    Let’s assume the prison versus not in prison rates are the same for both crimes, as that’s dreadfully important in this math being valid. Assuming the ratio of prison:not-prison is the same for both crimes, we need to do a weighted average of actual time served given the frequency of the crime (based on number of people in prison for it…see why the prison:not-prison ratio is crucial?)

    So!

    (.375*5) + (.625*3) = 1.875 + 1.875 …ok that’s just weird… = 3.75

    Weird, but mathematically sound. Ratio of people in prison for rape to people in prison for sexual assault — 3:5. Average sentence served for the former, 5 years, for the latter, 3 years.

    For the sake of that being wid, and my having done a rough guess for the percents, let me round, we’ll call it 60% sexual assault.

    (.4*5) + (.6*3) = 2 + 1.8 = 3.8

    50/50 ratio, just to cover all our bases here?

    (.5*5) + (.5*3) = 2.5 + 1.5 = 4 (and if you seriously couldn’t guess the average between 5 and 3, I can’t bloody help you)

    So no, not an average of five years, more like an average of less than four years. And given the sheer number of rape and sexual assault convicts, this isn’t a fluke (go google law of large numbers)

  25. Some Gal — g’night!

  26. You should consider what I’ve written about deterrence, ok? We should assume that the sex offender registry is a deterrence because like being in prison, it’s not nice to live under the Tuttle bridge or something like that.

    No. We should assume nothing. You know what they say about that, oh great mansplainer.

    Aw, chewy couldn’t hold up under snark. Poor chew toy.

  27. Yeah, I’m not sure there isn’t another mistake, but I managed to recreate his thought process *holds out hand for medal* and yeah, if I thought he were smart enough, I’d assume that he rigged it on purpose to get the highest number possible. But no, he’s honest (although not showing your work looks like cheating, Jaro *teacher glare*), just dumb.

    FYI, I wanted to get an upper bound here, so I didn’t care for jail sentences and lumped all non-prison sentences together and set them to zero. When RAINN claims something like “only 3 of 5 convicted rapists spend even a day in prison” it’s not like Argenti Aertheri (and probably many people?) understood it, that only 60% get a custodial sentence. If you look at the sources, 80% get one.

    And I fear, though ze studied psychology, Argenti Aertheri still doesn’t know what correlation means in statistics. I agree with zir though, that if you look at the chart, you see it’s unlikely that Megan’s law had a huge positive effect on sex offenses.

  28. And I fear , though ze studied psychology, Argenti Aertheri Jaro still doesn’t know what correlation means in statistics anything.

    FTFY

  29. *dies laughing* I really do need to hire a Greek chorus to sing “correlation is not causation” because Jaro, dude, you can’t have a causal relationship between a factor and a result that started before it was relevant. Obvious thing remains obvious.

    And since when does “length of sentence actually served” imply “without ever being in jail” — yes, all my math applies to rapists sent to jail (or not). When did you say that you weren’t using the same metric. More importantly, why’d you correct 40% to, what was it, 34%? If you we using a different metric entirely?

    Thank you for getting both my pronouns and nym right though.

    Off topic — “2 + 2 = 22″ “2 + 2 = 100″ “22” “100” “fish” “binary” — things that just happened in my room (my brother’s the one who resorted to fish…and is kinda right that 22 = fish)

  30. Some Gal Not Bored at All

    @Jaro

    You were looking for an upper bound…on the average…to prove that rapists don’t get light sentences…

    Speechless.

    Again, I will say that if I thought you were smart enough, I would think that you were deliberately trying to get numbers that match your guess, but I don’t.

    Now, we can argue about if 4 or 5 or 8 or 14 year sentences are light, if you’d like. I have a feeling you’ll lose that argument just due to numbers though. It is rather obvious that you don’t consider 8 to be light and at least a good number of us do.

  31. According to the ever correct wiki answers /sarcasm — at least in Michigan certain types of arson face higher penalties.

    http://t.answers.com/answers/#!/entry/what-is-arson-and-how-many-years-of-prison-time,4fb29ee5ecb7a0e66f8f6a9b/3

    And I’m not going to bother researching the draconian penalties for drug crimes (you know, the ones that generally involve consenting adults?)

  32. Some Gal Not Bored at All

    @Argenti

    I’m not sure it makes sense to compare too heavy sentences to rape sentences to prove the rape sentences are too light. It would be a bit like taking the upper bound of an average to prove the opposite.

    (That will never not be funny to me.)

  33. Eh, fair enough on drug sentences, the 10~ years for arson, considering the factors that get that level, seem comparable. Idk, maybe not, I was looking for things that should get worse sentences but don’t, found that, and got distracted by my brother tossing my new timbuk2 bag at me. (T-1 *freaks*)

  34. Some Gal Not Bored at All

    @Argenti

    I think comparing arson and other property crimes is good. And I think it says very not good things about our society that we “care” about drugs more than we care about rape, but it isn’t as though we can just split the difference. :( What about domestic violence? I’m guessing that comes in lower than my opinion says it should.

    Hooray for you new bag! And good luck with the psych. :)

  35. You should consider what I’ve written about deterrence, ok? We should assume that the sex offender registry is a deterrence because like being in prison, it’s not nice to live under the Tuttle bridge or something like that. If that doesn’t work, why should longer prison sentences be effective?

    it’s not nice to live under the tuttle bridge….. yeah it’s not nice to rape someone too. WTF?

    “are those sentences laughable?”. You can’t expect US sentences to be much lighter, but we’ll come to that.

    …why? US and UK are different countries. Like, really dude?

    @cassandrasays

    I’m not sure whether to laugh or cry about the fact that somebody thinks that 8 years isn’t a light sentence for rape.

    I’m horrible at judging sentences, so I can’t judge. Also young, so lots of years sound like a lot. I certainly don’t think 8 years is too much, I just don’t have much comparison :P (people’ve been posting more though, which is helping)

    @jerkwad

    But that doesn’t change anything about the average sentence.

    wait…probation means you don’t go to jail, right? so, you’re excluding people who are guilty (and actually found guilty) from your numbers…why? I mean, I’m not a math person and this seems wrong.

    But actually, you don’t have much to look forward to, because well, I’m getting a bit tired, I don’t have much hope that this could suddenly become productive. I’m not used to arguing under snark barrage.

    Marie sighs wearily, a good thing if the troll leaves, but a bad thing too, as she has had a very fucking hard day and needs a nice chew toy. (Also, she desires to rant about this…not that I am begging or anything. I mean, I kind of am ;) but I don’t want to interrupt an actual conversation, just the troll, if he’s still posting.) /third person.

    Go fuck yourself with cactus-embedded legos.

    I was happy to see more cactus curses :D They are under-rated.

    I see there’s a bunch of math stuff going on that I don’t understand, but I’ll actually trust the math people on that, instead of troll boy.

    @some gal

    Probabtion, autocorrect. WTF? Probabtion. Sheesh.

    if it makes your autocorrect feel any better, my brain read it as the same word ;)

    Rape sentences can, in theory, be limited to a fine. Unlike drug charges there’s rarely (if ever) a mandatory minimum

    O_O I hate the world.

    @Argenti Aertheri

    Ah, side note. Marie and Jaro, please correct me if my guesses at your pronouns are incorrect

    You got mine right :D Thanks for asking though.

    @jaro

    I’m having a really hard time believing you. Show your damn work. I trust Argenti Aertheri’s math a buttload more than yours for a couple reasons: 1) zie’s not trolling. 2)zie isn’t being purposefully unclear. 3)ZIE SHOWS THEIR WORK! It is not that hard!!!!

    You were looking for an upper bound…on the average…to prove that rapists don’t get light sentences…

    Speechless.

    somehow that didn’t hit me XD jaro, you suck.

  36. @Some Gal:

    You were looking for an upper bound…on the average…to prove that rapists don’t get light sentences…

    Speechless.

    Sorry, I typed that in a hurry, I meant lower, of course (because of the topic of the discussion I had something like “an upper bound how bad = light the sentences are” in in mind, yeah… I know ;-) ). If you think about what I wrote, you’ll see it’s correct. In those 3X% numbers jail sentences are included, but I set them all to zero, so if I calculate the weighted average I get something that should actually be lower than the real average sentence.

    I think comparing arson and other property crimes is good.

    Arson threatens lifes so it is not just a property crime.

    Also just because I compared a single feature in both crimes (few rapists and arsonists get convicted) it doesn’t mean it’s a great idea to compare them otherwise (just one thing: is pyromania about power and control? Or an ICD as the WHO claims? psych 101 ;-)).

    Why not accept that the nature of the crime plays a major role? Rape, because obviously, consensual sex is not a rare phenomenon, and arson because fire destroys evidence (only in 10% of arson cases an arrest is made, only in 2% a conviction is reached).

    It is rather obvious that you don’t consider 8 to be light and at least a good number of us do.

    I don’t care, if you’re honest, you know how I meant that.
    The thing I’ll never understand though, is, how one can really blame culture for rape while simultaneously believing revenge should come down like the “fist of an angry god” and there should be no possibility to redeem yourself. Of course I don’t have hopes that I’ll get a good answer (other than snark).

    And I think it says very not good things about our society that we “care” about drugs more than we care about rape, but it isn’t as though we can just split the difference.

    Why not mainly blame the legal system? The inconsistency is everywhere, you have extremely harsh penalties for some non-contact sex offenses, too (Daniel Vilca).

    @Argenti:

    *dies laughing* I really do need to hire a Greek chorus to sing “correlation is not causation” because Jaro, dude, you can’t have a causal relationship between a factor and a result that started before it was relevant. Obvious thing remains obvious.

    Again, I still wrote correlation, not causation. And the second sentence is wrong too, because one could claim the decrease would’ve not continued as strong without Megan’s law (not that this is plausible). Also you used the offenses known to law enforcement not the vitimization rate.
    Btw, do you know inferential statistics or just descriptive statistics?

    More importantly, why’d you correct 40% to, what was it, 34%? If you we using a different metric entirely?

    Was it different? I looked at the studies which were quoted by RAINN. So I saw that RAINN added jail and probation together (that were these 3X% numbers) rounded it up to 40% and then said “Only 3 of 5 convicted rapists get even a single day in prison”.

    @Marie:

    …why? US and UK are different countries. Like, really dude?

    Yeah, because if you write something like “Rape sentence are laughable, especially in america” it’s just the worst thing ever to use examples from the UK.

    Correct me if you wrote “I don’t know about other countries, but in the US”?

    I see there’s a bunch of math stuff going on that I don’t understand, but I’ll actually trust the math people on that, instead of troll boy.

    Well, too bad, because actually I’m one of the few people here, who understands weak convergence or knows what MLE stands for. ;-)

    btw, you have pretty broad definitions of troll here.

  37. @jaro

    Yeah, because if you write something like “Rape sentence are laughable, especially in america” it’s just the worst thing ever to use examples from the UK.

    Correct me if you wrote “I don’t know about other countries, but in the US”?

    Um, it’s not the worst thing ever to use examples from the UK, just like, technically wrong. As in they actually are different countries. With different laws. Also, from what I’ve heard UK does sound better from a feminist prospective (not that there’s only one) especially with birth control, and seeing all the blatantly pro-rapist senators last election in the US, I’m going with definitely a huge rape culture here. And I have heard some about other countries, just not enough to make a huge judgement. Still haven’t heard of magical matriarchy land where all the rape laws are flawless, but if you have send me a link ;) And I deeply, deeply apologize* for not using the exact phrasing you thought was appropriate.

    *I do not actually apologize.

    I’m gonna let other people call you on your math, but if you want me to stop thinking you’re a troll, stop whining about how the poor rapists get so high sentences.

  38. btw, you have pretty broad definitions of troll here.

    No, they’re pretty narrow and clear, really. Misogynists specifially, given the nature of the site, and bigots in general – the racists, homophobes, transphobes and so on. Doesn’t matter if they’re being disingenuous or believe all their shit – we’ve had a lot of those. You fit the bill with your “won’t someone think of the rapists” crap. If you’ve bothered to read these threads at all, you know there are people here who’ve survived horrific experiences. That makes you insensitive at best, or possibly just a douchebag, or possibly something worse.

    I repeat: go fuck yourself with a cactus-embedded lego.

  39. Jaro: we may have a different, broader definition of troll here, but trust me, you’re hitting all the high notes with your smug mansplainations and general asshole behavior.

  40. Did he just not go to bed? Dude’s stubborn AND smug, not a great combination.

  41. Especially when he’s got nothing to be smug about.

  42. Some Gal Not Bored at All

    I see Jaro didn’t bother to address that he used a very narrow definition of rape and so found an inflated number. It is like he decides he is right, reads just enough of the conversation to respond with vaguely relevant insults, and fucks off.

    He’s worse than Diogenes (who I was just thinking about on the other thread). At least Diogenes’ claims were over-the-top lies. Jaro seems to prefer trite ones.

  43. I admit to the smugness charge, but that just happens if you try to be nice to people who have more like a shock and awe approach to discussions (I guess that sounded smug too ;-)). Regarding the defending-rapists accusations, no, that’s just a severly biased interpretation of what I wrote.

    @Some Gal Not Bored at All:

    I see Jaro didn’t bother to address that he used a very narrow definition of rape and so found an inflated number. It is like he decides he is right, reads just enough of the conversation

    I didn’t start working with that numbers, you supplied them to me.

    But you’re right about the narrow definition of rape, on the other hand, including all sexual assaults makes the definition too broad, I guess. Also, jail sentences are again not counted.

    After all, the claim was, that rape sentences are laughable, that’s a pretty strong claim.

    to respond with vaguely relevant insults, and fucks off.

    You never insulted me?

  44. I feel like an anthropologist.

    “Observe the creepy weirdo in its natural habitat, trolling the comments on a feminist blog. Watch as it flings the goalposts around with gleeful abandon, with no apparent purpose other than attempting to annoy women who don’t think rape is no big deal.”

  45. After all, the claim was, that rape sentences are laughable, that’s a pretty strong claim.

    Do you not know or not care what rape actually does to people? Did you read anything of the threads here, of what survivors have said? Anyone saying it’s a “strong claim” that rape sentences are laughable is pretty much denying the seriousness of the crime. Is that what you’re trying to do, or are you the other sort of oxygen thief who trolls for the lulz?

  46. Some Gal Not Bored at All

    @Jaro

    After all, the claim was, that rape sentences are laughable, that’s a pretty strong claim.

    And the numbers were never misrepresented. You decided they meant something they didn’t mean and attempted to use them in ways that weren’t warranted.

    After all, the claim was, that rape sentences are laughable, that’s a pretty strong claim.

    And that claim has been more than proven to our satisfaction. What you don’t seem to understand is that the claim wasn’t that they’d be laughable to smug misogynistic asshats, but that an average person would find them laughable. Average people don’t troll.

    You never insulted me?

    Not vaguely. My insults were incredibly specific. I wasn’t complaining about the insults, you poor fool, I was complaining about their quality,

  47. I don’t know where to begin, what with the dancing goal post game and all. Seeing how I haven’t had my coffee yet, let’s just go with —

    Hey Jaro, you care to respond to all that math about sexual assault sentencing, or just going to hand wave it away by saying you consider the definition “too broad”?

    Did I provide definitions or just link to them? Hm, let me provide them in case I didn’t spell it out yesterday. BJS definitions:

    Rape – Forced sexual intercourse including both psychological coercion as well as physical force. Forced sexual intercourse means penetration by the offender(s). Includes attempted rapes, male as well as female victims, and both heterosexual and homosexual rape. Attempted rape includes verbal threats of rape.

    Sexual assault – A wide range of victimizations, separate from rape or attempted rape. These crimes include attacks or attempted attacks generally involving unwanted sexual contact between victim and offender. Sexual assaults may or may not involve force and include such things as grabbing or fondling. It also includes verbal threats.

    Oh and you know your correlations so well? Ice cream must prevent the flu then right? All violent crime followed the same trend, and started decreasing before Megan’s law, and followed the same curve (gods do I wish I could spell, because that is not the technical term I want) — unless you want to argue that Megan’s law caused murder rates not to go up?

    Even pre-coffee to odds of “Megan’s law prevented an increase in rape charges” looks ludicrous.

    As for arrests versus reports, oh I’ll dig up report rates if you really care, but it follows the same trend. Been here, done this, with too many trolls to count. One’s with neither math nor research skills who’ve insisted that self-reports are always de facto false because of “people lie”. You know so much math though, you must know the standard issues with self-reported anything.

    And now I need coffee!

  48. Cassandrasays

    “Observe the creepy weirdo in its natural habitat, trolling the comments on a feminist blog. Watch as it flings the goalposts around with gleeful abandon, with no apparent purpose other than attempting to annoy women who don’t think rape is no big deal.”

    This description probably amused me way to much XD I’m glad I wasn’t drinking anything. I admit, I am disappointed Jaro started to ignore me. /weird mood, chew toy want.

  49. Marie — try the thread filling the recent comments? If you haven’t yet that is, I’m still catching up on that one!

  50. You tell me How humans? ( Mammals in the animal kingdom select mates according to SCIENCE)?

    …I just figured out who this is.

  51. Dammit, wrong thread.

  52. @Argenti Aertheri

    I’ve read it now XD It took so long to finish…

  53. Jaro (well, not really, since I suspect he’s gone): Also, I actually agree with Cassandra, we have a low conviction rate (though not to that extreme, but I’m not going into a debate about one of the most controversial issues in criminal statistics)

    Nope, you’d rather assert that the stats presented by other people are false, but you are going to be, “decent” and not prove it. Passive aggressive bullshit, and weak argument to boot. That’s cheap politician style rhetoric there: Rick Santorum levels of dishonest.

    So at least the focus switched away from “teach men not to rape”… Which is bad how? Men commit the rapes. Better to teach them not to do it than to make an impossible set of rules for women; and then blame them when that fails.

    Futher, that there is a real risk of punishment for rape is teaching men not to rape; on the theory that they are cognitively able to assess risk and determine that committing rape is a behavior (like kiting a check) which has direct repercussions.

    So when that Steubenville guy cried “My life is over!”, I would say “Yes, it is.”.

    And the problem with that is…? he raped someone. A crime of personal violence. If he’d gotten a felony conviction, with the same prison term, for assault no one would be complaining. The only thing which seems to underly the, “OMG their lives are ruined” is the assault they perpetrated was against a 16 year old woman, and it wasn’t that they hit her with a club, it’s that they raped her.

    For which, it seems, punishing them as the law directs is a horrible thing; at least that seems to be the widespread belief with which you are concurring.

    I’m not used to arguing under snark barrage.

    So you don’t take this show on the road much? Thank goodness for that.

    Also just because I compared a single feature in both crimes (few rapists and arsonists get convicted) it doesn’t mean it’s a great idea to compare them otherwise (just one thing: is pyromania about power and control? Or an ICD as the WHO claims? psych 101 ;-) ).

    Interesting confusion here (and you’ll have to forgive my suspicious nature, but I don’t think it accidental). Only a small number of arsons are pyromanical: most are crimes of either revenge, or for pecuniary interest.

    Why not mainly blame the legal system?

    Because “the legal system” isn’t some abstract thing. It’s choices people make, which reflect the things they believe to be unacceptable. Which is why the, “how you can blame rape culture and still want society to avenge rape” makes sense.

    one could claim the decrease would’ve not continued as strong without Megan’s law (not that this is plausible).

    Go look at the chart. The decrese is in step with the decrease in other crimes.

  54. @The K:

    Anyone saying it’s a “strong claim” that rape sentences are laughable is pretty much denying the seriousness of the crime. Is that what you’re trying to do, or are you the other sort of oxygen thief who trolls for the lulz?

    I’m doing neither, “laughable” if we’re honest and look at the context, was always just a facon de parler for “a sentence so light, that it can be shrugged off”. I’m not making any judgements about what SOs deserve. To pretend the opposite is like the the other over the top irrational argument “you’re sorry for the rapists!!!!” which regularily raises its head here when I explain why the registry is a serious punishment.

    @Argenti Aertheri:

    Hey Jaro, you care to respond to all that math about sexual assault sentencing, or just going to hand wave it away by saying you consider the definition “too broad”?

    It is extremely broad, because it includes every contact SO like groping. Also your data is 15+ years old which does make a difference, e. g. you’ve got an average of 6.4 years served in FL for sexual battery (broader than the FBI forcible rape definition) now, probably because of the 85%-rule.

    Now for the sake of argument let’s accept your 3.75 years number for an unspecified contact SO. Do you really believe there are that many SOs out there who think “four years that seems like a fair deal, but twenty years that’s not worth it”?

    reg. unimportant sideshow argument: 1. yes, ice cream sales and flu cases are negatively correlated 2. I said victimization rate not number of arrests.

  55. @Pecunium:

    Which is bad how? Men commit the rapes.

    Not wrong, it’s inconsistent with believing rape is a serious crime. There has to be a good argument, why normal people can be so wrong. We’re not talking about fly-tipping here.
    Of course you can believe that rape culture can be compared to delusional attitudes of societies where everybody thinks it’s ok to deny certain people basic human rights, or you can believe rape is like DUI manslaughter, something that not-totally-evil people can somehow end up doing but they still have to pay the full price for it. But those two options will give rise other inconsistencies.

    Better to teach them not to do it than to make an impossible set of rules for women; and then blame them when that fails.

    Rules =/= advice. Is it so bad to discourage drinking to unconsciousness? You’re dependent on other people, and though you may cringe (and Cassandra leave a snarky comment like “he wants a medal for not raping”) there indeed has been a woman (who destroyed my couch) at the mercy of the evil-incarnate rape apologist who is talking to you. That can be avoided. I doubt the other usual advices have any value, though.

    Futher, that there is a real risk of punishment for rape is teaching men not to rape; on the theory that they are cognitively able to assess risk and determine that committing rape is a behavior (like kiting a check) which has direct repercussions.

    If we want this teaching permanently and as a major point to include cautioning about the punishment, it seems to me we assume a biological propensity for men to rape.
    reg the rest of your post, if I find time I’ll adress it.

    @Argenti Aerthi: the claim about FL: http://www.dc.state.fl.us/pub/timeserv/doing/

  56. thenatfantastic

    Is it so bad to discourage drinking to unconsciousness?

    There’s nothing wrong with saying ‘don’t drink until you pass out, it’s really bad for you, you might lose your belongings, make yourself ill, annoy your friends, etc. etc.’. There IS, however, something wrong with saying ‘women, if you are drunk*, you’re responsible for someone else choosing to sexually assault you’.

    Why are you so invested in arguing with women** about how they feel about an issue that primarily affects them? Seriously, it’s… weird.

    (*ignoring the fact that rapists will consciously trick women into drinking more than they wanted to, relying on this idea being permeated through society)

    (**Not all posters here are women, but the majority are, and you didn’t come here to talk to men, certainly)

  57. I’m necroing this thread to let Manboobzers know that Bayley pleaded guilty to Ms Meagher’s rape and murder today.

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